Top-5 leagues 2026/27 -- Model vs Market (fmlsite)

Premier League

ξ*=0.002, w*=0.6

RPS 0.198219 vs de-vigged Pinnacle close 0.190678 (Δ +0.007540, CI95 [+0.004747,+0.010351]) — model LOSES

10 fixture(s)

Hull City vs Manchester United (Hull vs Man United)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 11:30 UTC / 2026-08-22 19:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 28.6% D 25.6% A 45.8% E[T] 2.99 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.75 Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 8.47

Model-estimated EV: +1.422 units per 1 staked

P(win) 28.6%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 19:05:45 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Draw @ 4.91 · EV +0.258 · P(win) 25.6%
Under 2.75 @ 2.04 · EV -0.021 · P(profit) 42.5% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 57.5%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 28.6% (3.50) / D 25.6% (3.90) / A 45.8% (2.18)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 10.8% (Δ+0.178) / D 19.3% (Δ+0.063) / A 69.9% (Δ-0.241)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.99

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

05.9%
113.2%
223.4%
322.4%
416.8%
510.0%
65.0%
7+3.3%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.8 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.8): Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	12.6%	0.0%	87.4%
-1.25	12.6%	8.0%	79.4%
-1.00	12.6%	16.0%	71.4%
-0.75	20.6%	8.0%	71.4%
-0.50	28.6%	0.0%	71.4%
-0.25	28.6%	12.8%	58.6%
+0.00	28.6%	25.6%	45.8%
+0.25	41.4%	12.8%	45.8%
+0.50	54.2%	0.0%	45.8%
+0.75	54.2%	10.5%	35.2%
+1.00	54.2%	21.1%	24.7%
+1.25	64.8%	10.5%	24.7%
+1.50	75.3%	0.0%	24.7%

Fair line: +0.25 (win 41.4% / push 12.8% / loss 45.8%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (11.9%), 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.6%)

Unbeaten: Hull 54.2% / Man United 71.4%

Everton vs Crystal Palace (Everton vs Crystal Palace)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 14:00 UTC / 2026-08-22 22:00 HKT

Provenance: live

H 38.4% D 28.3% A 33.2% E[T] 2.61 O/U 2.5 Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

MODEL PICK — Away @ 3.40

Model-estimated EV: +0.130 units per 1 staked

P(win) 33.2%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 19:05:45 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Under 2.5 @ 1.93 · EV -0.003 · P(profit) 51.7% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 48.3%
Draw @ 3.47 · EV -0.017 · P(win) 28.3%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 38.4% (2.60) / D 28.3% (3.53) / A 33.2% (3.01)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 43.9% (Δ-0.054) / D 27.8% (Δ+0.005) / A 28.4% (Δ+0.049)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.61

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

08.4%
117.2%
226.1%
321.8%
414.2%
57.4%
63.2%
7+1.7%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.5): Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.5): Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	18.1%	0.0%	81.9%
-1.25	18.1%	10.1%	71.7%
-1.00	18.1%	20.3%	61.6%
-0.75	28.3%	10.1%	61.6%
-0.50	38.4%	0.0%	61.6%
-0.25	38.4%	14.2%	47.4%
+0.00	38.4%	28.3%	33.2%
+0.25	52.6%	14.2%	33.2%
+0.50	66.8%	0.0%	33.2%
+0.75	66.8%	9.3%	24.0%
+1.00	66.8%	18.5%	14.7%
+1.25	76.0%	9.3%	14.7%
+1.50	85.3%	0.0%	14.7%

Fair line: +0.00 (win 38.4% / push 28.3% / loss 33.2%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (13.5%), 1-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.5%)

Unbeaten: Everton 66.8% / Crystal Palace 61.6%

Ipswich Town vs Sunderland (Ipswich vs Sunderland)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 14:00 UTC / 2026-08-22 22:00 HKT

Provenance: live

H 25.0% D 27.6% A 47.4% E[T] 2.58 O/U 2.5 Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

MODEL PICK — Away @ 2.72

Model-estimated EV: +0.290 units per 1 staked

P(win) 47.4%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 19:05:45 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Under 2.5 @ 1.86 · EV -0.025 · P(profit) 52.4% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 47.6%
Over 2.5 @ 2.03 · EV -0.034 · P(profit) 47.6% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 52.4%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 25.0% (4.00) / D 27.6% (3.63) / A 47.4% (2.11)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 34.9% (Δ-0.099) / D 29.4% (Δ-0.019) / A 35.7% (Δ+0.117)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.58

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

08.6%
117.6%
226.2%
321.7%
414.0%
57.2%
63.1%
7+1.6%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.5): Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.5): Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	9.7%	0.0%	90.3%
-1.25	9.7%	7.7%	82.7%
-1.00	9.7%	15.3%	75.0%
-0.75	17.3%	7.7%	75.0%
-0.50	25.0%	0.0%	75.0%
-0.25	25.0%	13.8%	61.2%
+0.00	25.0%	27.6%	47.4%
+0.25	38.8%	13.8%	47.4%
+0.50	52.6%	0.0%	47.4%
+0.75	52.6%	11.4%	36.0%
+1.00	52.6%	22.8%	24.6%
+1.25	64.0%	11.4%	24.6%
+1.50	75.4%	0.0%	24.6%

Fair line: +0.50 (win 52.6% / push 0.0% / loss 47.4%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-1 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.3%)

Unbeaten: Ipswich 52.6% / Sunderland 75.0%

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United (Nott'm Forest vs Leeds)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 14:00 UTC / 2026-08-22 22:00 HKT

Provenance: live

H 40.1% D 26.9% A 33.0% E[T] 2.84 O/U 2.5 Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

MODEL PICK — Away @ 3.22

Model-estimated EV: +0.062 units per 1 staked

P(win) 33.0%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 19:05:45 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 2.5 @ 1.96 · EV +0.058 · P(profit) 54.0% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 46.0%
Draw @ 3.45 · EV -0.073 · P(win) 26.9%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 40.1% (2.49) / D 26.9% (3.72) / A 33.0% (3.03)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 42.1% (Δ-0.020) / D 27.9% (Δ-0.010) / A 30.0% (Δ+0.030)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.84

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

06.8%
114.7%
224.5%
322.3%
415.8%
59.0%
64.3%
7+2.6%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.5): Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.5): Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	20.0%	0.0%	80.0%
-1.25	20.0%	10.1%	69.9%
-1.00	20.0%	20.1%	59.9%
-0.75	30.1%	10.1%	59.9%
-0.50	40.1%	0.0%	59.9%
-0.25	40.1%	13.4%	46.4%
+0.00	40.1%	26.9%	33.0%
+0.25	53.6%	13.4%	33.0%
+0.50	67.0%	0.0%	33.0%
+0.75	67.0%	8.9%	24.0%
+1.00	67.0%	17.9%	15.1%
+1.25	76.0%	8.9%	15.1%
+1.50	84.9%	0.0%	15.1%

Fair line: -0.25 (win 40.1% / push 13.4% / loss 46.4%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%)

Unbeaten: Nott'm Forest 67.0% / Leeds 59.9%

Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur (Brentford vs Tottenham)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 16:30 UTC / 2026-08-23 00:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 49.5% D 24.0% A 26.4% E[T] 3.23 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.75 Over 62.7% / Under 37.3%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 2.48

Model-estimated EV: +0.229 units per 1 staked

P(win) 49.5%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 19:05:45 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 2.75 @ 1.88 · EV +0.081 · P(profit) 62.7% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 37.3%
Draw @ 3.68 · EV -0.116 · P(win) 24.0%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 49.5% (2.02) / D 24.0% (4.16) / A 26.4% (3.78)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 39.2% (Δ+0.104) / D 26.1% (Δ-0.021) / A 34.7% (Δ-0.083)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.23

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

04.8%
111.1%
221.4%
322.2%
418.0%
511.6%
66.3%
7+4.7%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.8 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 62.7% / Under 37.3%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.8): Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	28.5%	0.0%	71.5%
-1.25	28.5%	10.5%	61.0%
-1.00	28.5%	21.1%	50.5%
-0.75	39.0%	10.5%	50.5%
-0.50	49.5%	0.0%	50.5%
-0.25	49.5%	12.0%	38.4%
+0.00	49.5%	24.0%	26.4%
+0.25	61.6%	12.0%	26.4%
+0.50	73.6%	0.0%	26.4%
+0.75	73.6%	7.4%	19.1%
+1.00	73.6%	14.7%	11.7%
+1.25	80.9%	7.4%	11.7%
+1.50	88.3%	0.0%	11.7%

Fair line: -0.50 (win 49.5% / push 0.0% / loss 50.5%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%)

Unbeaten: Brentford 73.6% / Tottenham 50.5%

Brighton and Hove Albion vs Aston Villa (Brighton vs Aston Villa)

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 13:00 UTC / 2026-08-23 21:00 HKT

Provenance: live

H 43.3% D 26.1% A 30.7% E[T] 2.95 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.75 Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

MODEL PICK — PASS

No offered candidate has positive model-estimated EV.

Pinnacle timestamps: h2h 2026-08-20 19:05:45 UTC / totals 2026-08-20 19:05:45 UTC

Three closest candidates

Away @ 3.25 · EV -0.004 · P(win) 30.7%
Under 2.75 @ 2.03 · EV -0.007 · P(profit) 43.4% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 56.6%
Home @ 2.21 · EV -0.044 · P(win) 43.3%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 43.3% (2.31) / D 26.1% (3.84) / A 30.7% (3.26)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 44.0% (Δ-0.008) / D 26.3% (Δ-0.002) / A 29.7% (Δ+0.010)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.95

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

06.1%
113.6%
223.7%
322.4%
416.5%
59.8%
64.8%
7+3.1%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.8 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.8): Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	22.7%	0.0%	77.3%
-1.25	22.7%	10.3%	67.0%
-1.00	22.7%	20.6%	56.7%
-0.75	33.0%	10.3%	56.7%
-0.50	43.3%	0.0%	56.7%
-0.25	43.3%	13.0%	43.7%
+0.00	43.3%	26.1%	30.7%
+0.25	56.3%	13.0%	30.7%
+0.50	69.3%	0.0%	30.7%
+0.75	69.3%	8.4%	22.2%
+1.00	69.3%	16.8%	13.8%
+1.25	77.8%	8.4%	13.8%
+1.50	86.2%	0.0%	13.8%

Fair line: -0.25 (win 43.3% / push 13.0% / loss 43.7%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.2%), 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.6%)

Unbeaten: Brighton 69.3% / Aston Villa 56.7%

Manchester City vs Bournemouth (Man City vs Bournemouth)

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 13:00 UTC / 2026-08-23 21:00 HKT

Provenance: live

H 62.4% D 20.8% A 16.8% E[T] 3.35 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 3.25 Over 65.0% / Under 35.0%

MODEL PICK — Draw @ 5.02

Model-estimated EV: +0.042 units per 1 staked

P(win) 20.8%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 19:05:45 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Under 3.25 @ 1.99 · EV +0.025 · P(profit) 57.0% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 43.0%
Away @ 5.87 · EV -0.012 · P(win) 16.8%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 62.4% (1.60) / D 20.8% (4.82) / A 16.8% (5.94)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 65.2% (Δ-0.028) / D 18.8% (Δ+0.019) / A 16.0% (Δ+0.008)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.35

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

04.2%
110.4%
220.4%
322.0%
418.4%
512.3%
66.9%
7+5.4%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 3.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 65.0% / Under 35.0%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 3.2): Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	40.5%	0.0%	59.5%
-1.25	40.5%	11.0%	48.6%
-1.00	40.5%	21.9%	37.6%
-0.75	51.4%	11.0%	37.6%
-0.50	62.4%	0.0%	37.6%
-0.25	62.4%	10.4%	27.2%
+0.00	62.4%	20.8%	16.8%
+0.25	72.8%	10.4%	16.8%
+0.50	83.2%	0.0%	16.8%
+0.75	83.2%	5.2%	11.6%
+1.00	83.2%	10.4%	6.4%
+1.25	88.4%	5.2%	6.4%
+1.50	93.6%	0.0%	6.4%

Fair line: -1.00 (win 40.5% / push 21.9% / loss 37.6%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.9%)

Unbeaten: Man City 83.2% / Bournemouth 37.6%

Newcastle United vs Liverpool (Newcastle vs Liverpool)

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 15:30 UTC / 2026-08-23 23:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 34.8% D 24.1% A 41.1% E[T] 3.41 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 3.25 Over 66.2% / Under 33.8%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 3.73

Model-estimated EV: +0.298 units per 1 staked

P(win) 34.8%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 19:05:45 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 3.25 @ 2.00 · EV -0.005 · P(profit) 44.3% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 55.7%
Draw @ 3.99 · EV -0.038 · P(win) 24.1%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 34.8% (2.87) / D 24.1% (4.15) / A 41.1% (2.43)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 25.7% (Δ+0.092) / D 23.9% (Δ+0.002) / A 50.4% (Δ-0.093)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.41

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

04.1%
19.7%
220.0%
321.8%
418.6%
512.7%
67.2%
7+5.8%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 3.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 66.2% / Under 33.8%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 3.2): Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	17.5%	0.0%	82.5%
-1.25	17.5%	8.6%	73.8%
-1.00	17.5%	17.3%	65.2%
-0.75	26.2%	8.6%	65.2%
-0.50	34.8%	0.0%	65.2%
-0.25	34.8%	12.1%	53.1%
+0.00	34.8%	24.1%	41.1%
+0.25	46.9%	12.1%	41.1%
+0.50	58.9%	0.0%	41.1%
+0.75	58.9%	9.5%	31.6%
+1.00	58.9%	18.9%	22.2%
+1.25	68.4%	9.5%	22.2%
+1.50	77.8%	0.0%	22.2%

Fair line: +0.25 (win 46.9% / push 12.1% / loss 41.1%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (10.4%), 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.8%)

Unbeaten: Newcastle 58.9% / Liverpool 65.2%

Fulham vs Chelsea (Fulham vs Chelsea)

Kickoff: 2026-08-24 19:00 UTC / 2026-08-25 03:00 HKT

Provenance: live

H 33.4% D 26.2% A 40.4% E[T] 2.96 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.75 Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 3.81

Model-estimated EV: +0.271 units per 1 staked

P(win) 33.4%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 19:05:45 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Draw @ 3.93 · EV +0.031 · P(win) 26.2%
Under 2.75 @ 2.06 · EV +0.002 · P(profit) 43.2% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 56.8%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 33.4% (3.00) / D 26.2% (3.81) / A 40.4% (2.47)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 25.1% (Δ+0.082) / D 24.4% (Δ+0.019) / A 50.5% (Δ-0.101)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.96

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

06.1%
113.5%
223.6%
322.4%
416.6%
59.8%
64.8%
7+3.2%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.8 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.8): Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	15.6%	0.0%	84.4%
-1.25	15.6%	8.9%	75.5%
-1.00	15.6%	17.7%	66.6%
-0.75	24.5%	8.9%	66.6%
-0.50	33.4%	0.0%	66.6%
-0.25	33.4%	13.1%	53.5%
+0.00	33.4%	26.2%	40.4%
+0.25	46.5%	13.1%	40.4%
+0.50	59.6%	0.0%	40.4%
+0.75	59.6%	9.9%	30.5%
+1.00	59.6%	19.9%	20.6%
+1.25	69.5%	9.9%	20.6%
+1.50	79.4%	0.0%	20.6%

Fair line: +0.25 (win 46.5% / push 13.1% / loss 40.4%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.2%), 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%)

Unbeaten: Fulham 59.6% / Chelsea 66.6%

Arsenal vs Coventry City (Arsenal vs Coventry)

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 19:00 UTC / 2026-08-22 03:00 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

Promoted/unrated team fallback used: Coventry (bottom-3 mean rating).

H 68.5% D 21.1% A 10.4% E[T] 2.66 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 3 Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

MODEL PICK — Draw @ 7.83

Model-estimated EV: +0.654 units per 1 staked

P(win) 21.1%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 19:05:45 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Away @ 15.84 · EV +0.644 · P(win) 10.4%
Under 3 @ 1.90 · EV +0.174 · P(profit) 50.3% / P(push) 22.0% / P(loss) 27.8%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 68.5% (1.46) / D 21.1% (4.73) / A 10.4% (9.64)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 83.0% (Δ-0.145) / D 11.7% (Δ+0.094) / A 5.3% (Δ+0.051)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.66

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

07.7%
117.1%
225.5%
322.0%
414.6%
57.8%
63.5%
7+1.9%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 3.0 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 3.0): Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	43.8%	0.0%	56.2%
-1.25	43.8%	12.4%	43.9%
-1.00	43.8%	24.7%	31.5%
-0.75	56.1%	12.4%	31.5%
-0.50	68.5%	0.0%	31.5%
-0.25	68.5%	10.6%	20.9%
+0.00	68.5%	21.1%	10.4%
+0.25	79.1%	10.6%	10.4%
+0.50	89.6%	0.0%	10.4%
+0.75	89.6%	3.8%	6.6%
+1.00	89.6%	7.6%	2.8%
+1.25	93.4%	3.8%	2.8%
+1.50	97.2%	0.0%	2.8%

Fair line: -1.25 (win 43.8% / push 12.4% / loss 43.9%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 2-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (9.9%)

Unbeaten: Arsenal 89.6% / Coventry 31.5%

La Liga

ξ*=0.001, w*=0.7

RPS 0.195211 vs de-vigged Pinnacle close 0.191043 (Δ +0.004168, CI95 [+0.001885,+0.006429]) — model LOSES

26 fixture(s)

Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla (Ath Bilbao vs Sevilla)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 15:00 UTC / 2026-08-22 23:00 HKT

Provenance: live

H 54.6% D 24.9% A 20.6% E[T] 2.52 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.25 Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

MODEL PICK — Over 2.25 @ 2.03

Model-estimated EV: +0.062 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 46.0% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 54.0%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Away @ 5.07 · EV +0.043 · P(win) 20.6%
Home @ 1.74 · EV -0.051 · P(win) 54.6%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 54.6% (1.83) / D 24.9% (4.02) / A 20.6% (4.86)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 56.0% (Δ-0.015) / D 25.4% (Δ-0.005) / A 18.6% (Δ+0.020)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.52

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

08.1%
120.2%
225.6%
321.4%
413.5%
56.8%
62.8%
7+1.5%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.2): Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	29.4%	0.0%	70.6%
-1.25	29.4%	12.6%	58.0%
-1.00	29.4%	25.2%	45.4%
-0.75	42.0%	12.6%	45.4%
-0.50	54.6%	0.0%	45.4%
-0.25	54.6%	12.4%	33.0%
+0.00	54.6%	24.9%	20.6%
+0.25	67.0%	12.4%	20.6%
+0.50	79.4%	0.0%	20.6%
+0.75	79.4%	6.9%	13.7%
+1.00	79.4%	13.8%	6.8%
+1.25	86.3%	6.9%	6.8%
+1.50	93.2%	0.0%	6.8%

Fair line: -0.75 (win 42.0% / push 12.6% / loss 45.4%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.6%)

Unbeaten: Ath Bilbao 79.4% / Sevilla 45.4%

Valencia vs Celta Vigo (Valencia vs Celta)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 17:30 UTC / 2026-08-23 01:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 44.2% D 25.8% A 29.9% E[T] 2.65 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.25 Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

MODEL PICK — Over 2.25 @ 2.04

Model-estimated EV: +0.132 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 49.4% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 50.6%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Home @ 2.38 · EV +0.053 · P(win) 44.2%
Away @ 3.24 · EV -0.031 · P(win) 29.9%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 44.2% (2.26) / D 25.8% (3.87) / A 29.9% (3.34)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 40.8% (Δ+0.034) / D 29.4% (Δ-0.036) / A 29.8% (Δ+0.001)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.65

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

07.1%
118.6%
224.9%
321.9%
414.5%
57.7%
63.4%
7+1.9%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.2): Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	21.8%	0.0%	78.2%
-1.25	21.8%	11.2%	67.0%
-1.00	21.8%	22.5%	55.8%
-0.75	33.0%	11.2%	55.8%
-0.50	44.2%	0.0%	55.8%
-0.25	44.2%	12.9%	42.8%
+0.00	44.2%	25.8%	29.9%
+0.25	57.2%	12.9%	29.9%
+0.50	70.1%	0.0%	29.9%
+0.75	70.1%	8.9%	21.0%
+1.00	70.1%	17.8%	12.2%
+1.25	79.0%	8.9%	12.2%
+1.50	87.8%	0.0%	12.2%

Fair line: -0.25 (win 44.2% / push 12.9% / loss 42.8%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.1%)

Unbeaten: Valencia 70.1% / Celta 55.8%

Espanyol vs Real Madrid (Espanol vs Real Madrid)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 19:30 UTC / 2026-08-23 03:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 20.9% D 21.9% A 57.2% E[T] 3.04 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.75 Over 58.7% / Under 41.3%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 7.43

Model-estimated EV: +0.552 units per 1 staked

P(win) 20.9%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 2.75 @ 1.94 · EV +0.033 · P(profit) 58.7% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 41.3%
Draw @ 4.65 · EV +0.019 · P(win) 21.9%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 20.9% (4.79) / D 21.9% (4.56) / A 57.2% (1.75)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 12.4% (Δ+0.085) / D 20.3% (Δ+0.016) / A 67.3% (Δ-0.101)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.04

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

04.8%
114.4%
222.1%
322.4%
417.0%
510.4%
65.3%
7+3.6%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.8 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 58.7% / Under 41.3%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.8): Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	7.8%	0.0%	92.2%
-1.25	7.8%	6.6%	85.7%
-1.00	7.8%	13.1%	79.1%
-0.75	14.3%	6.6%	79.1%
-0.50	20.9%	0.0%	79.1%
-0.25	20.9%	11.0%	68.2%
+0.00	20.9%	21.9%	57.2%
+0.25	31.8%	11.0%	57.2%
+0.50	42.8%	0.0%	57.2%
+0.75	42.8%	11.7%	45.5%
+1.00	42.8%	23.4%	33.8%
+1.25	54.5%	11.7%	33.8%
+1.50	66.2%	0.0%	33.8%

Fair line: +0.75 (win 42.8% / push 11.7% / loss 45.5%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.2%)

Unbeaten: Espanol 42.8% / Real Madrid 79.1%

Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal (Ath Madrid vs Villarreal)

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 15:00 UTC / 2026-08-23 23:00 HKT

Provenance: live

H 55.8% D 21.6% A 22.5% E[T] 3.20 O/U 2.5 Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

MODEL PICK — Over 2.5 @ 1.88

Model-estimated EV: +0.166 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 62.0% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 38.0%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Home @ 1.88 · EV +0.050 · P(win) 55.8%
Away @ 4.20 · EV -0.054 · P(win) 22.5%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 55.8% (1.79) / D 21.6% (4.62) / A 22.5% (4.44)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 51.9% (Δ+0.040) / D 25.4% (Δ-0.037) / A 22.7% (Δ-0.002)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.20

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

04.1%
113.0%
220.9%
322.3%
417.8%
511.4%
66.1%
7+4.5%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.5): Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.5): Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	33.2%	0.0%	66.8%
-1.25	33.2%	11.3%	55.5%
-1.00	33.2%	22.7%	44.2%
-0.75	44.5%	11.3%	44.2%
-0.50	55.8%	0.0%	44.2%
-0.25	55.8%	10.8%	33.3%
+0.00	55.8%	21.6%	22.5%
+0.25	66.7%	10.8%	22.5%
+0.50	77.5%	0.0%	22.5%
+0.75	77.5%	6.8%	15.7%
+1.00	77.5%	13.6%	8.9%
+1.25	84.3%	6.8%	8.9%
+1.50	91.1%	0.0%	8.9%

Fair line: -0.75 (win 44.5% / push 11.3% / loss 44.2%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%)

Unbeaten: Ath Madrid 77.5% / Villarreal 44.2%

Getafe vs Real Racing Club de Santander (Getafe vs Santander)

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 17:30 UTC / 2026-08-24 01:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 42.2% D 26.4% A 31.4% E[T] 2.58 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2 Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

MODEL PICK — Away @ 4.15

Model-estimated EV: +0.305 units per 1 staked

P(win) 31.4%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 2 @ 2.12 · EV +0.265 · P(profit) 47.8% / P(push) 25.2% / P(loss) 27.0%
Home @ 2.17 · EV -0.085 · P(win) 42.2%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 42.2% (2.37) / D 26.4% (3.79) / A 31.4% (3.18)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 44.9% (Δ-0.027) / D 32.1% (Δ-0.057) / A 23.1% (Δ+0.084)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.58

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

07.6%
119.4%
225.2%
321.7%
414.0%
57.2%
63.1%
7+1.7%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.0 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.0): Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	20.0%	0.0%	80.0%
-1.25	20.0%	11.1%	68.9%
-1.00	20.0%	22.1%	57.8%
-0.75	31.1%	11.1%	57.8%
-0.50	42.2%	0.0%	57.8%
-0.25	42.2%	13.2%	44.6%
+0.00	42.2%	26.4%	31.4%
+0.25	55.4%	13.2%	31.4%
+0.50	68.6%	0.0%	31.4%
+0.75	68.6%	9.3%	22.2%
+1.00	68.6%	18.5%	12.9%
+1.25	77.8%	9.3%	12.9%
+1.50	87.1%	0.0%	12.9%

Fair line: -0.25 (win 42.2% / push 13.2% / loss 44.6%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (8.8%)

Unbeaten: Getafe 68.6% / Santander 57.8%

Elche CF vs Barcelona (Elche vs Barcelona)

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 19:30 UTC / 2026-08-24 03:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 15.1% D 17.8% A 67.0% E[T] 3.50 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 3.25 Over 68.0% / Under 32.0%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 7.93

Model-estimated EV: +0.200 units per 1 staked

P(win) 15.1%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Draw @ 6.15 · EV +0.097 · P(win) 17.8%
Over 3.25 @ 1.97 · EV +0.023 · P(profit) 46.4% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 53.6%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 15.1% (6.61) / D 17.8% (5.60) / A 67.0% (1.49)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 11.5% (Δ+0.036) / D 15.1% (Δ+0.028) / A 73.4% (Δ-0.064)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.50

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

03.0%
110.5%
218.5%
321.6%
418.9%
513.2%
67.7%
7+6.6%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 3.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 68.0% / Under 32.0%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 3.2): Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	5.4%	0.0%	94.6%
-1.25	5.4%	4.9%	89.7%
-1.00	5.4%	9.8%	84.9%
-0.75	10.3%	4.9%	84.9%
-0.50	15.1%	0.0%	84.9%
-0.25	15.1%	8.9%	76.0%
+0.00	15.1%	17.8%	67.0%
+0.25	24.0%	8.9%	67.0%
+0.50	33.0%	0.0%	67.0%
+0.75	33.0%	11.0%	56.0%
+1.00	33.0%	22.0%	45.0%
+1.25	44.0%	11.0%	45.0%
+1.50	55.0%	0.0%	45.0%

Fair line: +1.25 (win 44.0% / push 11.0% / loss 45.0%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (8.8%), 1-1 (7.9%)

Unbeaten: Elche 33.0% / Barcelona 84.9%

CA Osasuna vs Levante (Osasuna vs Levante)

Kickoff: 2026-08-24 17:30 UTC / 2026-08-25 01:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 49.7% D 23.8% A 26.4% E[T] 2.92 O/U 2.5 Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

MODEL PICK — Away @ 4.45

Model-estimated EV: +0.175 units per 1 staked

P(win) 26.4%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 2.5 @ 2.08 · EV +0.160 · P(profit) 55.8% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 44.2%
Home @ 1.86 · EV -0.075 · P(win) 49.7%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 49.7% (2.01) / D 23.8% (4.19) / A 26.4% (3.79)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 52.4% (Δ-0.026) / D 26.3% (Δ-0.025) / A 21.3% (Δ+0.051)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.92

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

05.5%
115.7%
223.1%
322.4%
416.3%
59.5%
64.6%
7+2.9%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.5): Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.5): Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	27.0%	0.0%	73.0%
-1.25	27.0%	11.4%	61.7%
-1.00	27.0%	22.8%	50.3%
-0.75	38.3%	11.4%	50.3%
-0.50	49.7%	0.0%	50.3%
-0.25	49.7%	11.9%	38.3%
+0.00	49.7%	23.8%	26.4%
+0.25	61.7%	11.9%	26.4%
+0.50	73.6%	0.0%	26.4%
+0.75	73.6%	7.9%	18.5%
+1.00	73.6%	15.8%	10.7%
+1.25	81.5%	7.9%	10.7%
+1.50	89.3%	0.0%	10.7%

Fair line: -0.50 (win 49.7% / push 0.0% / loss 50.3%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%)

Unbeaten: Osasuna 73.6% / Levante 50.3%

Málaga vs Deportivo La Coruña (Malaga vs La Coruna)

Kickoff: 2026-08-24 19:30 UTC / 2026-08-25 03:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 40.6% D 28.8% A 30.6% E[T] 2.23 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2 Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 2.56

Model-estimated EV: +0.038 units per 1 staked

P(win) 40.6%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 2 @ 1.97 · EV +0.027 · P(profit) 38.5% / P(push) 26.8% / P(loss) 34.7%
Away @ 3.13 · EV -0.042 · P(win) 30.6%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 40.6% (2.47) / D 28.8% (3.47) / A 30.6% (3.27)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 37.9% (Δ+0.026) / D 31.2% (Δ-0.024) / A 30.9% (Δ-0.003)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.23

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

010.8%
123.9%
226.8%
319.9%
411.1%
54.9%
61.8%
7+0.8%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.0 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.0): Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	17.7%	0.0%	82.3%
-1.25	17.7%	11.4%	70.9%
-1.00	17.7%	22.9%	59.4%
-0.75	29.1%	11.4%	59.4%
-0.50	40.6%	0.0%	59.4%
-0.25	40.6%	14.4%	45.0%
+0.00	40.6%	28.8%	30.6%
+0.25	55.0%	14.4%	30.6%
+0.50	69.4%	0.0%	30.6%
+0.75	69.4%	9.6%	21.1%
+1.00	69.4%	19.1%	11.5%
+1.25	78.9%	9.6%	11.5%
+1.50	88.5%	0.0%	11.5%

Fair line: -0.25 (win 40.6% / push 14.4% / loss 45.0%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (13.3%), 1-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.9%)

Unbeaten: Malaga 69.4% / La Coruna 59.4%

Valencia vs Real Betis (Valencia vs Betis)

Kickoff: 2026-08-25 19:00 UTC / 2026-08-26 03:00 HKT

Provenance: live

H 40.3% D 26.0% A 33.7% E[T] 2.67 O/U 2.5 Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 2.69

Model-estimated EV: +0.084 units per 1 staked

P(win) 40.3%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 2.5 @ 2.00 · EV -0.002 · P(profit) 49.9% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 50.1%
Under 2.5 @ 1.84 · EV -0.078 · P(profit) 50.1% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 49.9%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 40.3% (2.48) / D 26.0% (3.84) / A 33.7% (2.97)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 35.5% (Δ+0.048) / D 29.3% (Δ-0.033) / A 35.2% (Δ-0.016)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.67

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

07.0%
118.4%
224.7%
322.0%
414.7%
57.8%
63.5%
7+1.9%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.5): Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.5): Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	19.0%	0.0%	81.0%
-1.25	19.0%	10.7%	70.4%
-1.00	19.0%	21.3%	59.7%
-0.75	29.6%	10.7%	59.7%
-0.50	40.3%	0.0%	59.7%
-0.25	40.3%	13.0%	46.7%
+0.00	40.3%	26.0%	33.7%
+0.25	53.3%	13.0%	33.7%
+0.50	66.3%	0.0%	33.7%
+0.75	66.3%	9.6%	24.1%
+1.00	66.3%	19.1%	14.5%
+1.25	75.9%	9.6%	14.5%
+1.50	85.5%	0.0%	14.5%

Fair line: -0.25 (win 40.3% / push 13.0% / loss 46.7%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.4%), 1-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.7%)

Unbeaten: Valencia 66.3% / Betis 59.7%

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad (Real Madrid vs Sociedad)

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 19:00 UTC / 2026-08-27 03:00 HKT

Provenance: live

H 67.1% D 18.6% A 14.2% E[T] 3.20 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 3 Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

MODEL PICK — Away @ 7.13

Model-estimated EV: +0.015 units per 1 staked

P(win) 14.2%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Under 3 @ 2.00 · EV -0.019 · P(profit) 37.9% / P(push) 22.3% / P(loss) 39.8%
Over 3 @ 1.84 · EV -0.045 · P(profit) 39.8% / P(push) 22.3% / P(loss) 37.9%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 67.1% (1.49) / D 18.6% (5.36) / A 14.2% (7.02)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 69.6% (Δ-0.025) / D 17.9% (Δ+0.007) / A 12.5% (Δ+0.018)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.20

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

04.1%
112.9%
220.9%
322.3%
417.8%
511.4%
66.1%
7+4.5%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 3.0 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 3.0): Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	44.0%	0.0%	56.0%
-1.25	44.0%	11.5%	44.4%
-1.00	44.0%	23.1%	32.9%
-0.75	55.6%	11.5%	32.9%
-0.50	67.1%	0.0%	32.9%
-0.25	67.1%	9.3%	23.6%
+0.00	67.1%	18.6%	14.2%
+0.25	76.4%	9.3%	14.2%
+0.50	85.8%	0.0%	14.2%
+0.75	85.8%	4.8%	9.4%
+1.00	85.8%	9.6%	4.7%
+1.25	90.6%	4.8%	4.7%
+1.50	95.3%	0.0%	4.7%

Fair line: -1.25 (win 44.0% / push 11.5% / loss 44.4%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.2%)

Unbeaten: Real Madrid 85.8% / Sociedad 32.9%

Celta Vigo vs CA Osasuna (Celta vs Osasuna)

Kickoff: 2026-08-27 18:30 UTC / 2026-08-28 02:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 49.5% D 25.3% A 25.2% E[T] 2.62 O/U 2.5 Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

MODEL PICK — UNAVAILABLE

no frozen usable pre-kickoff Pinnacle price

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 49.5% (2.02) / D 25.3% (3.95) / A 25.2% (3.97)

no Pinnacle h2h

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.62

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

07.3%
118.9%
225.0%
321.8%
414.3%
57.5%
63.3%
7+1.8%

Model O/U at 2.5 (no Pinnacle totals): Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

no Pinnacle totals

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	25.7%	0.0%	74.3%
-1.25	25.7%	11.9%	62.4%
-1.00	25.7%	23.8%	50.5%
-0.75	37.6%	11.9%	50.5%
-0.50	49.5%	0.0%	50.5%
-0.25	49.5%	12.6%	37.8%
+0.00	49.5%	25.3%	25.2%
+0.25	62.2%	12.6%	25.2%
+0.50	74.8%	0.0%	25.2%
+0.75	74.8%	7.9%	17.3%
+1.00	74.8%	15.8%	9.4%
+1.25	82.7%	7.9%	9.4%
+1.50	90.6%	0.0%	9.4%

Fair line: -0.50 (win 49.5% / push 0.0% / loss 50.5%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.4%)

Unbeaten: Celta 74.8% / Osasuna 50.5%

Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao (Barcelona vs Ath Bilbao)

Kickoff: 2026-08-27 19:00 UTC / 2026-08-28 03:00 HKT

Provenance: live

H 66.1% D 19.0% A 15.0% E[T] 3.20 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 3 Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

MODEL PICK — Away @ 7.15

Model-estimated EV: +0.070 units per 1 staked

P(win) 15.0%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Under 3 @ 2.02 · EV -0.011 · P(profit) 37.9% / P(push) 22.3% / P(loss) 39.8%
Draw @ 5.10 · EV -0.032 · P(win) 19.0%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 66.1% (1.51) / D 19.0% (5.27) / A 15.0% (6.68)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 69.6% (Δ-0.035) / D 18.0% (Δ+0.010) / A 12.4% (Δ+0.025)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.20

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

04.1%
112.9%
220.9%
322.3%
417.8%
511.4%
66.1%
7+4.5%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 3.0 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 3.0): Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	42.9%	0.0%	57.1%
-1.25	42.9%	11.6%	45.5%
-1.00	42.9%	23.1%	33.9%
-0.75	54.5%	11.6%	33.9%
-0.50	66.1%	0.0%	33.9%
-0.25	66.1%	9.5%	24.5%
+0.00	66.1%	19.0%	15.0%
+0.25	75.5%	9.5%	15.0%
+0.50	85.0%	0.0%	15.0%
+0.75	85.0%	5.0%	10.0%
+1.00	85.0%	10.0%	5.0%
+1.25	90.0%	5.0%	5.0%
+1.50	95.0%	0.0%	5.0%

Fair line: -1.25 (win 42.9% / push 11.6% / loss 45.5%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.1%)

Unbeaten: Barcelona 85.0% / Ath Bilbao 33.9%

Alavés vs Getafe (Alaves vs Getafe)

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 17:30 UTC / 2026-08-16 01:30 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

H 44.5% D 29.6% A 26.0% E[T] 2.07 O/U 2.5 Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

MODEL PICK — UNAVAILABLE

legacy snapshot has no frozen price-aware decision

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

1X2: model picked H vs FTR H ✓
O/U: model called Under at 2.5 vs realized total 3 (Over) ✗
AH: model fair line -0.25 called Home vs realized margin 3 (Home) ✓

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 44.5% (2.25) / D 29.6% (3.38) / A 26.0% (3.85)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 40.5% (Δ+0.040) / D 34.3% (Δ-0.047) / A 25.2% (Δ+0.007)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.07

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

012.6%
126.1%
227.0%
318.7%
49.7%
54.0%
61.4%
7+0.5%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 1.8 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 1.8): Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	19.7%	0.0%	80.3%
-1.25	19.7%	12.4%	67.9%
-1.00	19.7%	24.8%	55.5%
-0.75	32.1%	12.4%	55.5%
-0.50	44.5%	0.0%	55.5%
-0.25	44.5%	14.8%	40.7%
+0.00	44.5%	29.6%	26.0%
+0.25	59.3%	14.8%	26.0%
+0.50	74.0%	0.0%	26.0%
+0.75	74.0%	8.7%	17.3%
+1.00	74.0%	17.4%	8.5%
+1.25	82.7%	8.7%	8.5%
+1.50	91.5%	0.0%	8.5%

Fair line: -0.25 (win 44.5% / push 14.8% / loss 40.7%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.6%)

Unbeaten: Alaves 74.0% / Getafe 55.5%

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano (Sevilla vs Vallecano)

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 19:30 UTC / 2026-08-16 03:30 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

H 45.0% D 26.4% A 28.6% E[T] 2.52 O/U 2.5 Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

MODEL PICK — UNAVAILABLE

legacy snapshot has no frozen price-aware decision

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

1X2: model picked H vs FTR H ✓
O/U: model called Under at 2.5 vs realized total 3 (Over) ✗
AH: model fair line -0.25 called Home vs realized margin 1 (Home) ✓

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 45.0% (2.22) / D 26.4% (3.78) / A 28.6% (3.50)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 39.5% (Δ+0.055) / D 30.3% (Δ-0.038) / A 30.3% (Δ-0.017)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.52

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

08.1%
120.3%
225.6%
321.4%
413.5%
56.8%
62.8%
7+1.5%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.2): Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	21.8%	0.0%	78.2%
-1.25	21.8%	11.6%	66.6%
-1.00	21.8%	23.2%	55.0%
-0.75	33.4%	11.6%	55.0%
-0.50	45.0%	0.0%	55.0%
-0.25	45.0%	13.2%	41.8%
+0.00	45.0%	26.4%	28.6%
+0.25	58.2%	13.2%	28.6%
+0.50	71.4%	0.0%	28.6%
+0.75	71.4%	8.8%	19.8%
+1.00	71.4%	17.6%	11.0%
+1.25	80.2%	8.8%	11.0%
+1.50	89.0%	0.0%	11.0%

Fair line: -0.25 (win 45.0% / push 13.2% / loss 41.8%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.0%)

Unbeaten: Sevilla 71.4% / Vallecano 55.0%

Alavés vs Getafe (Alaves vs Getafe)

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 19:00 UTC / 2026-08-17 03:00 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

H 44.5% D 29.5% A 26.0% E[T] 2.07 O/U 2.5 Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

MODEL PICK — UNAVAILABLE

legacy snapshot has no frozen price-aware decision

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 44.5% (2.25) / D 29.5% (3.38) / A 26.0% (3.85)

no Pinnacle h2h

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.07

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

012.6%
126.1%
227.0%
318.7%
49.7%
54.0%
61.4%
7+0.5%

Model O/U at 2.5 (no Pinnacle totals): Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

no Pinnacle totals

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	19.7%	0.0%	80.3%
-1.25	19.7%	12.4%	67.9%
-1.00	19.7%	24.8%	55.5%
-0.75	32.1%	12.4%	55.5%
-0.50	44.5%	0.0%	55.5%
-0.25	44.5%	14.8%	40.7%
+0.00	44.5%	29.5%	26.0%
+0.25	59.3%	14.8%	26.0%
+0.50	74.0%	0.0%	26.0%
+0.75	74.0%	8.7%	17.2%
+1.00	74.0%	17.4%	8.5%
+1.25	82.8%	8.7%	8.5%
+1.50	91.5%	0.0%	8.5%

Fair line: -0.25 (win 44.5% / push 14.8% / loss 40.7%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.6%)

Unbeaten: Alaves 74.0% / Getafe 55.5%

Atlético Madrid vs Málaga (Ath Madrid vs Malaga)

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 19:00 UTC / 2026-08-17 03:00 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

H 66.5% D 20.5% A 12.9% E[T] 2.69 O/U 2.5 Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

MODEL PICK — UNAVAILABLE

legacy snapshot has no frozen price-aware decision

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 66.5% (1.50) / D 20.5% (4.87) / A 12.9% (7.73)

no Pinnacle h2h

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.69

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

06.8%
118.2%
224.6%
322.0%
414.8%
58.0%
63.6%
7+2.0%

Model O/U at 2.5 (no Pinnacle totals): Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

no Pinnacle totals

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	41.2%	0.0%	58.8%
-1.25	41.2%	12.7%	46.1%
-1.00	41.2%	25.4%	33.5%
-0.75	53.9%	12.7%	33.5%
-0.50	66.5%	0.0%	33.5%
-0.25	66.5%	10.3%	23.2%
+0.00	66.5%	20.5%	12.9%
+0.25	76.8%	10.3%	12.9%
+0.50	87.1%	0.0%	12.9%
+0.75	87.1%	4.7%	8.2%
+1.00	87.1%	9.4%	3.5%
+1.25	91.8%	4.7%	3.5%
+1.50	96.5%	0.0%	3.5%

Fair line: -1.25 (win 41.2% / push 12.7% / loss 46.1%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-0 (13.3%), 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (9.7%)

Unbeaten: Ath Madrid 87.1% / Malaga 33.5%

Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao (Barcelona vs Ath Bilbao)

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 19:00 UTC / 2026-08-17 03:00 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

H 65.9% D 19.0% A 15.1% E[T] 3.20 O/U 2.5 Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

MODEL PICK — UNAVAILABLE

legacy snapshot has no frozen price-aware decision

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 65.9% (1.52) / D 19.0% (5.27) / A 15.1% (6.63)

no Pinnacle h2h

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.20

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

04.1%
113.0%
220.9%
322.3%
417.8%
511.4%
66.1%
7+4.5%

Model O/U at 2.5 (no Pinnacle totals): Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

no Pinnacle totals

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	42.8%	0.0%	57.2%
-1.25	42.8%	11.6%	45.6%
-1.00	42.8%	23.2%	34.1%
-0.75	54.4%	11.6%	34.1%
-0.50	65.9%	0.0%	34.1%
-0.25	65.9%	9.5%	24.6%
+0.00	65.9%	19.0%	15.1%
+0.25	75.4%	9.5%	15.1%
+0.50	84.9%	0.0%	15.1%
+0.75	84.9%	5.0%	10.1%
+1.00	84.9%	10.1%	5.0%
+1.25	89.9%	5.0%	5.0%
+1.50	95.0%	0.0%	5.0%

Fair line: -1.25 (win 42.8% / push 11.6% / loss 45.6%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.1%)

Unbeaten: Barcelona 84.9% / Ath Bilbao 34.1%

Celta Vigo vs CA Osasuna (Celta vs Osasuna)

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 19:30 UTC / 2026-08-17 03:30 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

H 49.5% D 25.2% A 25.3% E[T] 2.62 O/U 2.5 Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

MODEL PICK — UNAVAILABLE

legacy snapshot has no frozen price-aware decision

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 49.5% (2.02) / D 25.2% (3.96) / A 25.3% (3.95)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 47.3% (Δ+0.022) / D 27.5% (Δ-0.022) / A 25.3% (Δ+0.000)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.62

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

07.3%
119.0%
225.0%
321.8%
414.3%
57.5%
63.3%
7+1.8%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.2): Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	25.6%	0.0%	74.4%
-1.25	25.6%	11.9%	62.5%
-1.00	25.6%	23.8%	50.5%
-0.75	37.5%	11.9%	50.5%
-0.50	49.5%	0.0%	50.5%
-0.25	49.5%	12.6%	37.9%
+0.00	49.5%	25.2%	25.3%
+0.25	62.1%	12.6%	25.3%
+0.50	74.7%	0.0%	25.3%
+0.75	74.7%	7.9%	17.4%
+1.00	74.7%	15.9%	9.4%
+1.25	82.6%	7.9%	9.4%
+1.50	90.6%	0.0%	9.4%

Fair line: -0.50 (win 49.5% / push 0.0% / loss 50.5%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.4%)

Unbeaten: Celta 74.7% / Osasuna 50.5%

Espanyol vs Levante (Espanol vs Levante)

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 17:00 UTC / 2026-08-17 01:00 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

H 44.8% D 24.1% A 31.1% E[T] 2.98 O/U 2.5 Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

MODEL PICK — UNAVAILABLE

legacy snapshot has no frozen price-aware decision

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

1X2: model picked H vs FTR H ✓
O/U: model called Over at 2.5 vs realized total 3 (Over) ✓
AH: model fair line -0.25 called Home vs realized margin 3 (Home) ✓

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 44.8% (2.23) / D 24.1% (4.15) / A 31.1% (3.22)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 46.6% (Δ-0.017) / D 29.0% (Δ-0.049) / A 24.4% (Δ+0.067)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.98

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

05.1%
115.1%
222.5%
322.4%
416.7%
510.0%
65.0%
7+3.3%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.2): Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	23.3%	0.0%	76.7%
-1.25	23.3%	10.8%	66.0%
-1.00	23.3%	21.6%	55.2%
-0.75	34.0%	10.8%	55.2%
-0.50	44.8%	0.0%	55.2%
-0.25	44.8%	12.0%	43.1%
+0.00	44.8%	24.1%	31.1%
+0.25	56.9%	12.0%	31.1%
+0.50	68.9%	0.0%	31.1%
+0.75	68.9%	8.7%	22.3%
+1.00	68.9%	17.5%	13.6%
+1.25	77.7%	8.7%	13.6%
+1.50	86.4%	0.0%	13.6%

Fair line: -0.25 (win 44.8% / push 12.0% / loss 43.1%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%)

Unbeaten: Espanol 68.9% / Levante 55.2%

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad (Real Madrid vs Sociedad)

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 19:00 UTC / 2026-08-17 03:00 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

H 67.0% D 18.7% A 14.4% E[T] 3.20 O/U 2.5 Over 61.9% / Under 38.1%

MODEL PICK — UNAVAILABLE

legacy snapshot has no frozen price-aware decision

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 67.0% (1.49) / D 18.7% (5.36) / A 14.4% (6.95)

no Pinnacle h2h

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.20

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

04.1%
113.1%
220.9%
322.3%
417.8%
511.4%
66.1%
7+4.4%

Model O/U at 2.5 (no Pinnacle totals): Over 61.9% / Under 38.1%

no Pinnacle totals

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	43.8%	0.0%	56.2%
-1.25	43.8%	11.6%	44.6%
-1.00	43.8%	23.2%	33.0%
-0.75	55.4%	11.6%	33.0%
-0.50	67.0%	0.0%	33.0%
-0.25	67.0%	9.3%	23.7%
+0.00	67.0%	18.7%	14.4%
+0.25	76.3%	9.3%	14.4%
+0.50	85.6%	0.0%	14.4%
+0.75	85.6%	4.8%	9.5%
+1.00	85.6%	9.7%	4.7%
+1.25	90.5%	4.8%	4.7%
+1.50	95.3%	0.0%	4.7%

Fair line: -1.25 (win 43.8% / push 11.6% / loss 44.6%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.2%)

Unbeaten: Real Madrid 85.6% / Sociedad 33.0%

Real Racing Club de Santander vs Villarreal (Santander vs Villarreal)

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 15:00 UTC / 2026-08-16 23:00 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

Promoted/unrated team fallback used: Santander (bottom-3 mean rating).

H 30.0% D 25.8% A 44.2% E[T] 2.64 O/U 2.5 Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

MODEL PICK — UNAVAILABLE

legacy snapshot has no frozen price-aware decision

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

1X2: model picked A vs FTR D ✗
O/U: model called Under at 2.5 vs realized total 4 (Over) ✗
AH: model fair line +0.25 called Away vs realized margin 0 (Home) ✗

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 30.0% (3.34) / D 25.8% (3.88) / A 44.2% (2.26)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 29.2% (Δ+0.007) / D 26.5% (Δ-0.007) / A 44.3% (Δ-0.000)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.64

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

07.1%
118.8%
224.9%
321.9%
414.5%
57.6%
63.4%
7+1.9%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.8 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.8): Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	12.1%	0.0%	87.9%
-1.25	12.1%	8.9%	78.9%
-1.00	12.1%	17.8%	70.0%
-0.75	21.1%	8.9%	70.0%
-0.50	30.0%	0.0%	70.0%
-0.25	30.0%	12.9%	57.1%
+0.00	30.0%	25.8%	44.2%
+0.25	42.9%	12.9%	44.2%
+0.50	55.8%	0.0%	44.2%
+0.75	55.8%	11.3%	33.0%
+1.00	55.8%	22.5%	21.7%
+1.25	67.0%	11.3%	21.7%
+1.50	78.3%	0.0%	21.7%

Fair line: +0.25 (win 42.9% / push 12.9% / loss 44.2%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.0%)

Unbeaten: Santander 55.8% / Villarreal 70.0%

Valencia vs Real Betis (Valencia vs Betis)

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 19:00 UTC / 2026-08-17 03:00 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

H 40.1% D 26.0% A 33.9% E[T] 2.66 O/U 2.5 Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

MODEL PICK — UNAVAILABLE

legacy snapshot has no frozen price-aware decision

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 40.1% (2.49) / D 26.0% (3.85) / A 33.9% (2.95)

no Pinnacle h2h

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.66

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

07.0%
118.6%
224.8%
321.9%
414.6%
57.8%
63.4%
7+1.9%

Model O/U at 2.5 (no Pinnacle totals): Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

no Pinnacle totals

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	18.8%	0.0%	81.2%
-1.25	18.8%	10.7%	70.6%
-1.00	18.8%	21.3%	59.9%
-0.75	29.4%	10.7%	59.9%
-0.50	40.1%	0.0%	59.9%
-0.25	40.1%	13.0%	46.9%
+0.00	40.1%	26.0%	33.9%
+0.25	53.1%	13.0%	33.9%
+0.50	66.1%	0.0%	33.9%
+0.75	66.1%	9.6%	24.3%
+1.00	66.1%	19.3%	14.6%
+1.25	75.7%	9.6%	14.6%
+1.50	85.4%	0.0%	14.6%

Fair line: +0.00 (win 40.1% / push 26.0% / loss 33.9%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.4%), 1-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (8.8%)

Unbeaten: Valencia 66.1% / Betis 59.9%

Deportivo La Coruña vs Elche CF (La Coruna vs Elche)

Kickoff: 2026-08-17 19:00 UTC / 2026-08-18 03:00 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

H 49.5% D 24.6% A 25.9% E[T] 2.74 O/U 2.5 Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

MODEL PICK — UNAVAILABLE

legacy snapshot has no frozen price-aware decision

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 49.5% (2.02) / D 24.6% (4.06) / A 25.9% (3.87)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 41.2% (Δ+0.083) / D 32.1% (Δ-0.074) / A 26.8% (Δ-0.009)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.74

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

06.5%
117.7%
224.3%
322.1%
415.2%
58.3%
63.8%
7+2.2%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.2): Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	26.1%	0.0%	73.9%
-1.25	26.1%	11.7%	62.2%
-1.00	26.1%	23.4%	50.5%
-0.75	37.8%	11.7%	50.5%
-0.50	49.5%	0.0%	50.5%
-0.25	49.5%	12.3%	38.2%
+0.00	49.5%	24.6%	25.9%
+0.25	61.8%	12.3%	25.9%
+0.50	74.1%	0.0%	25.9%
+0.75	74.1%	8.0%	17.9%
+1.00	74.1%	15.9%	10.0%
+1.25	82.1%	8.0%	10.0%
+1.50	90.0%	0.0%	10.0%

Fair line: -0.50 (win 49.5% / push 0.0% / loss 50.5%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.5%)

Unbeaten: La Coruna 74.1% / Elche 50.5%

Atlético Madrid vs Málaga (Ath Madrid vs Malaga)

Kickoff: 2026-08-19 19:00 UTC / 2026-08-20 03:00 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

H 66.8% D 20.5% A 12.7% E[T] 2.68 O/U 2.5 Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

MODEL PICK — UNAVAILABLE

legacy snapshot has no frozen price-aware decision

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 66.8% (1.50) / D 20.5% (4.88) / A 12.7% (7.89)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 75.2% (Δ-0.084) / D 16.2% (Δ+0.043) / A 8.6% (Δ+0.041)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.68

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

06.9%
118.3%
224.6%
322.0%
414.8%
57.9%
63.5%
7+2.0%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.8 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.8): Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	41.4%	0.0%	58.6%
-1.25	41.4%	12.7%	45.9%
-1.00	41.4%	25.4%	33.2%
-0.75	54.1%	12.7%	33.2%
-0.50	66.8%	0.0%	33.2%
-0.25	66.8%	10.2%	22.9%
+0.00	66.8%	20.5%	12.7%
+0.25	77.1%	10.2%	12.7%
+0.50	87.3%	0.0%	12.7%
+0.75	87.3%	4.6%	8.1%
+1.00	87.3%	9.2%	3.4%
+1.25	91.9%	4.6%	3.4%
+1.50	96.6%	0.0%	3.4%

Fair line: -1.25 (win 41.4% / push 12.7% / loss 45.9%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-0 (13.4%), 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (9.7%)

Unbeaten: Ath Madrid 87.3% / Malaga 33.2%

Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés (Vallecano vs Alaves)

Kickoff: 2026-08-20 19:00 UTC / 2026-08-21 03:00 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

H 46.6% D 26.5% A 27.0% E[T] 2.48 O/U 2.5 Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

MODEL PICK — UNAVAILABLE

legacy snapshot has no frozen price-aware decision

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 46.6% (2.15) / D 26.5% (3.78) / A 27.0% (3.71)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 42.7% (Δ+0.039) / D 31.4% (Δ-0.049) / A 25.9% (Δ+0.010)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.48

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

08.4%
120.7%
225.8%
321.3%
413.2%
56.6%
62.7%
7+1.4%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.2): Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	22.9%	0.0%	77.1%
-1.25	22.9%	11.8%	65.3%
-1.00	22.9%	23.7%	53.4%
-0.75	34.7%	11.8%	53.4%
-0.50	46.6%	0.0%	53.4%
-0.25	46.6%	13.2%	40.2%
+0.00	46.6%	26.5%	27.0%
+0.25	59.8%	13.2%	27.0%
+0.50	73.0%	0.0%	27.0%
+0.75	73.0%	8.5%	18.5%
+1.00	73.0%	16.9%	10.0%
+1.25	81.5%	8.5%	10.0%
+1.50	90.0%	0.0%	10.0%

Fair line: -0.25 (win 46.6% / push 13.2% / loss 40.2%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.5%), 1-0 (12.1%), 2-1 (9.1%)

Unbeaten: Vallecano 73.0% / Alaves 53.4%

Real Betis vs Real Sociedad (Betis vs Sociedad)

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 19:00 UTC / 2026-08-22 03:00 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

H 47.5% D 25.1% A 27.4% E[T] 2.72 O/U 2.5 Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

MODEL PICK — Over 2.5 @ 1.96

Model-estimated EV: +0.002 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 51.1% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 48.9%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Home @ 2.10 · EV -0.002 · P(win) 47.5%
Away @ 3.59 · EV -0.015 · P(win) 27.4%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 47.5% (2.10) / D 25.1% (3.99) / A 27.4% (3.65)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 46.4% (Δ+0.011) / D 26.9% (Δ-0.018) / A 26.8% (Δ+0.007)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.72

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

06.6%
117.9%
224.4%
322.1%
415.0%
58.2%
63.7%
7+2.1%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.5): Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.5): Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	24.5%	0.0%	75.5%
-1.25	24.5%	11.5%	64.0%
-1.00	24.5%	23.0%	52.5%
-0.75	36.0%	11.5%	52.5%
-0.50	47.5%	0.0%	52.5%
-0.25	47.5%	12.5%	40.0%
+0.00	47.5%	25.1%	27.4%
+0.25	60.0%	12.5%	27.4%
+0.50	72.6%	0.0%	27.4%
+0.75	72.6%	8.3%	19.1%
+1.00	72.6%	16.6%	10.8%
+1.25	80.9%	8.3%	10.8%
+1.50	89.2%	0.0%	10.8%

Fair line: -0.50 (win 47.5% / push 0.0% / loss 52.5%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.4%)

Unbeaten: Betis 72.6% / Sociedad 52.5%

Bundesliga

ξ*=0.001, w*=0.8

RPS 0.203658 vs de-vigged Pinnacle close 0.198364 (Δ +0.005294, CI95 [+0.002394,+0.008231]) — model LOSES

9 fixture(s)

Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart (Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart)

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 18:30 UTC / 2026-08-29 02:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 72.8% D 15.5% A 11.7% E[T] 4.12 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 4 Over 77.9% / Under 22.1%

MODEL PICK — PASS

No offered candidate has positive model-estimated EV.

Pinnacle timestamps: h2h 2026-08-20 13:15:48 UTC / totals 2026-08-20 13:15:48 UTC

Three closest candidates

Over 4 @ 1.95 · EV -0.036 · P(profit) 39.4% / P(push) 19.5% / P(loss) 41.0%
Under 4 @ 1.87 · EV -0.037 · P(profit) 41.0% / P(push) 19.5% / P(loss) 39.4%
Home @ 1.30 · EV -0.054 · P(win) 72.8%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 72.8% (1.37) / D 15.5% (6.44) / A 11.7% (8.56)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 74.3% (Δ-0.015) / D 14.7% (Δ+0.008) / A 11.0% (Δ+0.007)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 4.12

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

02.2%
15.6%
214.3%
318.9%
419.5%
516.1%
611.0%
7+12.3%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 4.0 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 77.9% / Under 22.1%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 4.0): Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	53.8%	0.0%	46.2%
-1.25	53.8%	9.5%	36.7%
-1.00	53.8%	19.0%	27.2%
-0.75	63.3%	9.5%	27.2%
-0.50	72.8%	0.0%	27.2%
-0.25	72.8%	7.8%	19.4%
+0.00	72.8%	15.5%	11.7%
+0.25	80.6%	7.8%	11.7%
+0.50	88.3%	0.0%	11.7%
+0.75	88.3%	3.6%	8.1%
+1.00	88.3%	7.3%	4.4%
+1.25	91.9%	3.6%	4.4%
+1.50	95.6%	0.0%	4.4%

Fair line: -1.50 (win 53.8% / push 0.0% / loss 46.2%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 2-1 (8.3%), 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.0%)

Unbeaten: Bayern Munich 88.3% / Stuttgart 27.2%

1. FC Köln vs TSG Hoffenheim (FC Koln vs Hoffenheim)

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 13:30 UTC / 2026-08-29 21:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 40.6% D 25.0% A 34.4% E[T] 3.27 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 3 Over 63.5% / Under 36.5%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 2.98

Model-estimated EV: +0.211 units per 1 staked

P(win) 40.6%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:48 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 3 @ 1.91 · EV +0.010 · P(profit) 41.3% / P(push) 22.1% / P(loss) 36.5%
Under 3 @ 1.93 · EV -0.073 · P(profit) 36.5% / P(push) 22.1% / P(loss) 41.3%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 40.6% (2.46) / D 25.0% (4.00) / A 34.4% (2.91)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 32.0% (Δ+0.087) / D 25.7% (Δ-0.007) / A 42.3% (Δ-0.080)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.27

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

04.8%
110.5%
221.3%
322.1%
418.1%
511.8%
66.5%
7+4.9%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 3.0 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 63.5% / Under 36.5%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 3.0): Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	21.6%	0.0%	78.4%
-1.25	21.6%	9.5%	68.9%
-1.00	21.6%	19.0%	59.4%
-0.75	31.1%	9.5%	59.4%
-0.50	40.6%	0.0%	59.4%
-0.25	40.6%	12.5%	46.9%
+0.00	40.6%	25.0%	34.4%
+0.25	53.1%	12.5%	34.4%
+0.50	65.6%	0.0%	34.4%
+0.75	65.6%	8.7%	25.7%
+1.00	65.6%	17.3%	17.1%
+1.25	74.3%	8.7%	17.1%
+1.50	82.9%	0.0%	17.1%

Fair line: -0.25 (win 40.6% / push 12.5% / loss 46.9%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (11.1%), 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%)

Unbeaten: FC Koln 65.6% / Hoffenheim 59.4%

Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen (Elversberg vs Leverkusen)

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 13:30 UTC / 2026-08-29 21:30 HKT

Provenance: live

Promoted/unrated team fallback used: Elversberg (bottom-3 mean rating).

H 14.8% D 23.0% A 62.2% E[T] 2.83 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 3.25 Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

MODEL PICK — Under 3.25 @ 1.85

Model-estimated EV: +0.172 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 68.5% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 31.5%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:48 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Draw @ 4.66 · EV +0.070 · P(win) 23.0%
Away @ 1.58 · EV -0.017 · P(win) 62.2%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 14.8% (6.74) / D 23.0% (4.35) / A 62.2% (1.61)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 19.3% (Δ-0.044) / D 19.7% (Δ+0.032) / A 61.0% (Δ+0.012)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.83

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

06.8%
114.8%
224.6%
322.3%
415.8%
58.9%
64.2%
7+2.6%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 3.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 3.2): Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	4.9%	0.0%	95.1%
-1.25	4.9%	5.0%	90.1%
-1.00	4.9%	9.9%	85.2%
-0.75	9.9%	5.0%	85.2%
-0.50	14.8%	0.0%	85.2%
-0.25	14.8%	11.5%	73.7%
+0.00	14.8%	23.0%	62.2%
+0.25	26.3%	11.5%	62.2%
+0.50	37.8%	0.0%	62.2%
+0.75	37.8%	11.9%	50.3%
+1.00	37.8%	23.7%	38.5%
+1.25	49.7%	11.9%	38.5%
+1.50	61.5%	0.0%	38.5%

Fair line: +1.00 (win 37.8% / push 23.7% / loss 38.5%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 0-2 (11.4%), 1-1 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.6%)

Unbeaten: Elversberg 37.8% / Leverkusen 85.2%

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Monchengladbach (RB Leipzig vs M'gladbach)

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 13:30 UTC / 2026-08-29 21:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 61.6% D 20.5% A 18.0% E[T] 3.56 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 3.25 Over 69.1% / Under 30.9%

MODEL PICK — Over 3.25 @ 1.94

Model-estimated EV: +0.032 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 47.7% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 52.3%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:48 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Away @ 5.32 · EV -0.045 · P(win) 18.0%
Draw @ 4.64 · EV -0.049 · P(win) 20.5%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 61.6% (1.62) / D 20.5% (4.88) / A 18.0% (5.57)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 63.0% (Δ-0.015) / D 19.8% (Δ+0.007) / A 17.1% (Δ+0.008)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.56

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

03.6%
18.6%
218.8%
321.4%
419.0%
513.6%
68.1%
7+7.0%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 3.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 69.1% / Under 30.9%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 3.2): Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	40.4%	0.0%	59.6%
-1.25	40.4%	10.6%	49.0%
-1.00	40.4%	21.1%	38.4%
-0.75	51.0%	10.6%	38.4%
-0.50	61.6%	0.0%	38.4%
-0.25	61.6%	10.2%	28.2%
+0.00	61.6%	20.5%	18.0%
+0.25	71.8%	10.2%	18.0%
+0.50	82.0%	0.0%	18.0%
+0.75	82.0%	5.3%	12.6%
+1.00	82.0%	10.7%	7.3%
+1.25	87.4%	5.3%	7.3%
+1.50	92.7%	0.0%	7.3%

Fair line: -1.00 (win 40.4% / push 21.1% / loss 38.4%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.9%), 2-0 (7.8%)

Unbeaten: RB Leipzig 82.0% / M'gladbach 38.4%

Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt (Union Berlin vs Ein Frankfurt)

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 13:30 UTC / 2026-08-29 21:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 37.2% D 27.6% A 35.2% E[T] 2.79 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.75 Over 52.7% / Under 47.3%

MODEL PICK — Under 2.75 @ 2.01

Model-estimated EV: +0.061 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 47.3% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 52.7%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:48 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Draw @ 3.59 · EV -0.009 · P(win) 27.6%
Away @ 2.76 · EV -0.027 · P(win) 35.2%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 37.2% (2.69) / D 27.6% (3.62) / A 35.2% (2.84)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 39.1% (Δ-0.019) / D 26.3% (Δ+0.013) / A 34.6% (Δ+0.007)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.79

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

07.3%
114.9%
225.1%
322.2%
415.5%
58.6%
64.0%
7+2.4%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.8 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 52.7% / Under 47.3%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.8): Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	17.9%	0.0%	82.1%
-1.25	17.9%	9.6%	72.5%
-1.00	17.9%	19.3%	62.8%
-0.75	27.5%	9.6%	62.8%
-0.50	37.2%	0.0%	62.8%
-0.25	37.2%	13.8%	49.0%
+0.00	37.2%	27.6%	35.2%
+0.25	51.0%	13.8%	35.2%
+0.50	64.8%	0.0%	35.2%
+0.75	64.8%	9.3%	25.9%
+1.00	64.8%	18.7%	16.6%
+1.25	74.1%	9.3%	16.6%
+1.50	83.4%	0.0%	16.6%

Fair line: +0.00 (win 37.2% / push 27.6% / loss 35.2%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%)

Unbeaten: Union Berlin 64.8% / Ein Frankfurt 62.8%

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn (Mainz vs Paderborn)

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 13:30 UTC / 2026-08-29 21:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 62.2% D 21.6% A 16.2% E[T] 3.19 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.75 Over 61.8% / Under 38.2%

MODEL PICK — Over 2.75 @ 1.87

Model-estimated EV: +0.058 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 61.8% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 38.2%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:48 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Home @ 1.68 · EV +0.046 · P(win) 62.2%
Draw @ 4.06 · EV -0.124 · P(win) 21.6%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 62.2% (1.61) / D 21.6% (4.64) / A 16.2% (6.18)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 57.4% (Δ+0.048) / D 23.0% (Δ-0.014) / A 19.6% (Δ-0.034)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.19

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

05.0%
111.4%
221.8%
322.3%
417.8%
511.3%
66.0%
7+4.4%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.8 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 61.8% / Under 38.2%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.8): Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	39.9%	0.0%	60.1%
-1.25	39.9%	11.2%	48.9%
-1.00	39.9%	22.4%	37.8%
-0.75	51.1%	11.2%	37.8%
-0.50	62.2%	0.0%	37.8%
-0.25	62.2%	10.8%	27.0%
+0.00	62.2%	21.6%	16.2%
+0.25	73.0%	10.8%	16.2%
+0.50	83.8%	0.0%	16.2%
+0.75	83.8%	5.1%	11.1%
+1.00	83.8%	10.2%	6.0%
+1.25	88.9%	5.1%	6.0%
+1.50	94.0%	0.0%	6.0%

Fair line: -1.00 (win 39.9% / push 22.4% / loss 37.8%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%)

Unbeaten: Mainz 83.8% / Paderborn 37.8%

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV (Dortmund vs Hamburg)

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 16:30 UTC / 2026-08-30 00:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 72.8% D 16.8% A 10.4% E[T] 3.56 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 3 Over 69.0% / Under 31.0%

MODEL PICK — Over 3 @ 1.85

Model-estimated EV: +0.095 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 47.6% / P(push) 21.4% / P(loss) 31.0%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:48 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Home @ 1.33 · EV -0.031 · P(win) 72.8%
Draw @ 5.50 · EV -0.077 · P(win) 16.8%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 72.8% (1.37) / D 16.8% (5.96) / A 10.4% (9.63)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 72.8% (Δ+0.001) / D 16.5% (Δ+0.002) / A 10.7% (Δ-0.003)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.56

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

03.5%
18.8%
218.7%
321.4%
419.0%
513.6%
68.0%
7+7.0%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 3.0 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 69.0% / Under 31.0%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 3.0): Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	52.3%	0.0%	47.7%
-1.25	52.3%	10.3%	37.4%
-1.00	52.3%	20.6%	27.2%
-0.75	62.6%	10.3%	27.2%
-0.50	72.8%	0.0%	27.2%
-0.25	72.8%	8.4%	18.8%
+0.00	72.8%	16.8%	10.4%
+0.25	81.2%	8.4%	10.4%
+0.50	89.6%	0.0%	10.4%
+0.75	89.6%	3.4%	6.9%
+1.00	89.6%	6.9%	3.5%
+1.25	93.1%	3.4%	3.5%
+1.50	96.5%	0.0%	3.5%

Fair line: -1.50 (win 52.3% / push 0.0% / loss 47.7%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 2-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.2%), 3-0 (8.6%)

Unbeaten: Dortmund 89.6% / Hamburg 27.2%

SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen (Freiburg vs Werder Bremen)

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 13:30 UTC / 2026-08-30 21:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 50.4% D 25.6% A 23.9% E[T] 2.90 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.75 Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 2.01

Model-estimated EV: +0.014 units per 1 staked

P(win) 50.4%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:48 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 2.75 @ 1.97 · EV -0.017 · P(profit) 55.4% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 44.6%
Under 2.75 @ 1.86 · EV -0.058 · P(profit) 44.6% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 55.4%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 50.4% (1.98) / D 25.6% (3.90) / A 23.9% (4.18)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 47.8% (Δ+0.026) / D 26.1% (Δ-0.004) / A 26.1% (Δ-0.022)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.90

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

06.6%
113.9%
224.2%
322.4%
416.2%
59.4%
64.5%
7+2.9%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.8 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.8): Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	28.3%	0.0%	71.7%
-1.25	28.3%	11.1%	60.6%
-1.00	28.3%	22.1%	49.6%
-0.75	39.4%	11.1%	49.6%
-0.50	50.4%	0.0%	49.6%
-0.25	50.4%	12.8%	36.7%
+0.00	50.4%	25.6%	23.9%
+0.25	63.3%	12.8%	23.9%
+0.50	76.1%	0.0%	23.9%
+0.75	76.1%	7.1%	16.8%
+1.00	76.1%	14.2%	9.8%
+1.25	83.2%	7.1%	9.8%
+1.50	90.2%	0.0%	9.8%

Fair line: -0.50 (win 50.4% / push 0.0% / loss 49.6%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.1%), 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%)

Unbeaten: Freiburg 76.1% / Werder Bremen 49.6%

Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 (Augsburg vs Schalke 04)

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 15:30 UTC / 2026-08-30 23:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 47.1% D 27.3% A 25.7% E[T] 2.69 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 3 Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

MODEL PICK — Under 3 @ 1.81

Model-estimated EV: +0.117 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 49.5% / P(push) 22.0% / P(loss) 28.4%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:48 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Home @ 2.18 · EV +0.026 · P(win) 47.1%
Draw @ 3.73 · EV +0.018 · P(win) 27.3%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 47.1% (2.12) / D 27.3% (3.67) / A 25.7% (3.90)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 44.1% (Δ+0.030) / D 25.2% (Δ+0.021) / A 30.7% (Δ-0.051)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.69

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

07.9%
116.0%
225.7%
322.0%
414.8%
58.0%
63.6%
7+2.0%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 3.0 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 3.0): Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	24.9%	0.0%	75.1%
-1.25	24.9%	11.1%	64.0%
-1.00	24.9%	22.2%	52.9%
-0.75	36.0%	11.1%	52.9%
-0.50	47.1%	0.0%	52.9%
-0.25	47.1%	13.6%	39.3%
+0.00	47.1%	27.3%	25.7%
+0.25	60.7%	13.6%	25.7%
+0.50	74.3%	0.0%	25.7%
+0.75	74.3%	7.6%	18.0%
+1.00	74.3%	15.3%	10.4%
+1.25	82.0%	7.6%	10.4%
+1.50	89.6%	0.0%	10.4%

Fair line: -0.50 (win 47.1% / push 0.0% / loss 52.9%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (13.0%), 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.4%)

Unbeaten: Augsburg 74.3% / Schalke 04 52.9%

Serie A

ξ*=0.002, w*=0.4

RPS 0.194499 vs de-vigged Pinnacle close 0.189501 (Δ +0.004998, CI95 [+0.002583,+0.007428]) — model LOSES

10 fixture(s)

Udinese vs Como (Udinese vs Como)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 16:30 UTC / 2026-08-23 00:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 23.2% D 25.7% A 51.2% E[T] 2.59 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.25 Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 4.72

Model-estimated EV: +0.093 units per 1 staked

P(win) 23.2%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:53 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 2.25 @ 1.94 · EV +0.059 · P(profit) 48.0% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 52.0%
Away @ 1.83 · EV -0.063 · P(win) 51.2%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 23.2% (4.32) / D 25.7% (3.90) / A 51.2% (1.95)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 20.1% (Δ+0.030) / D 26.6% (Δ-0.009) / A 53.3% (Δ-0.021)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.59

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

07.8%
118.7%
225.5%
321.7%
414.1%
57.3%
63.2%
7+1.7%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.2): Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	8.4%	0.0%	91.6%
-1.25	8.4%	7.4%	84.2%
-1.00	8.4%	14.8%	76.8%
-0.75	15.8%	7.4%	76.8%
-0.50	23.2%	0.0%	76.8%
-0.25	23.2%	12.8%	64.0%
+0.00	23.2%	25.7%	51.2%
+0.25	36.0%	12.8%	51.2%
+0.50	48.8%	0.0%	51.2%
+0.75	48.8%	12.0%	39.2%
+1.00	48.8%	24.0%	27.2%
+1.25	60.8%	12.0%	27.2%
+1.50	72.8%	0.0%	27.2%

Fair line: +0.50 (win 48.8% / push 0.0% / loss 51.2%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (9.6%)

Unbeaten: Udinese 48.8% / Como 76.8%

Inter Milan vs Monza (Inter vs Monza)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 16:30 UTC / 2026-08-23 00:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 83.7% D 11.2% A 5.1% E[T] 3.61 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 3 Over 69.9% / Under 30.1%

MODEL PICK — Over 3 @ 2.07

Model-estimated EV: +0.219 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 48.7% / P(push) 21.2% / P(loss) 30.1%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:53 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Home @ 1.21 · EV +0.013 · P(win) 83.7%
Draw @ 7.02 · EV -0.215 · P(win) 11.2%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 83.7% (1.19) / D 11.2% (8.94) / A 5.1% (19.69)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 80.6% (Δ+0.031) / D 13.0% (Δ-0.018) / A 6.4% (Δ-0.013)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.61

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

02.9%
19.5%
217.8%
321.2%
419.1%
513.8%
68.3%
7+7.4%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 3.0 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 69.9% / Under 30.1%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 3.0): Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	65.3%	0.0%	34.7%
-1.25	65.3%	9.2%	25.5%
-1.00	65.3%	18.4%	16.3%
-0.75	74.5%	9.2%	16.3%
-0.50	83.7%	0.0%	16.3%
-0.25	83.7%	5.6%	10.7%
+0.00	83.7%	11.2%	5.1%
+0.25	89.3%	5.6%	5.1%
+0.50	94.9%	0.0%	5.1%
+0.75	94.9%	1.9%	3.2%
+1.00	94.9%	3.9%	1.2%
+1.25	96.8%	1.9%	1.2%
+1.50	98.8%	0.0%	1.2%

Fair line: -1.50 (win 65.3% / push 0.0% / loss 34.7%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 2-0 (11.9%), 3-0 (11.8%), 4-0 (8.8%)

Unbeaten: Inter 94.9% / Monza 16.3%

Parma vs Cagliari (Parma vs Cagliari)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 18:45 UTC / 2026-08-23 02:45 HKT

Provenance: live

H 36.8% D 28.8% A 34.4% E[T] 2.34 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2 Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

MODEL PICK — Away @ 3.19

Model-estimated EV: +0.098 units per 1 staked

P(win) 34.4%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:53 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 2 @ 1.88 · EV +0.048 · P(profit) 41.5% / P(push) 26.7% / P(loss) 31.8%
Home @ 2.61 · EV -0.040 · P(win) 36.8%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 36.8% (2.72) / D 28.8% (3.47) / A 34.4% (2.90)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 37.2% (Δ-0.004) / D 32.6% (Δ-0.038) / A 30.3% (Δ+0.042)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.34

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

010.0%
121.8%
226.7%
320.6%
412.0%
55.6%
62.2%
7+1.0%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.0 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.0): Over 51.8% / Under 48.2%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	15.8%	0.0%	84.2%
-1.25	15.8%	10.5%	73.7%
-1.00	15.8%	21.0%	63.2%
-0.75	26.3%	10.5%	63.2%
-0.50	36.8%	0.0%	63.2%
-0.25	36.8%	14.4%	48.8%
+0.00	36.8%	28.8%	34.4%
+0.25	51.2%	14.4%	34.4%
+0.50	65.6%	0.0%	34.4%
+0.75	65.6%	10.1%	24.3%
+1.00	65.6%	20.2%	14.3%
+1.25	75.7%	10.1%	14.3%
+1.50	85.7%	0.0%	14.3%

Fair line: +0.00 (win 36.8% / push 28.8% / loss 34.4%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.7%)

Unbeaten: Parma 65.6% / Cagliari 63.2%

Genoa vs Napoli (Genoa vs Napoli)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 18:45 UTC / 2026-08-23 02:45 HKT

Provenance: live

H 22.2% D 27.2% A 50.6% E[T] 2.35 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.25 Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 5.20

Model-estimated EV: +0.154 units per 1 staked

P(win) 22.2%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:53 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Under 2.25 @ 1.88 · EV -0.022 · P(profit) 58.3% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 41.7%
Over 2.25 @ 2.02 · EV -0.023 · P(profit) 41.7% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 58.3%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 22.2% (4.51) / D 27.2% (3.68) / A 50.6% (1.97)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 18.2% (Δ+0.040) / D 29.0% (Δ-0.019) / A 52.8% (Δ-0.021)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.35

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

09.9%
121.7%
226.7%
320.6%
412.1%
55.7%
62.2%
7+1.0%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.2): Over 48.2% / Under 51.8%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	7.4%	0.0%	92.6%
-1.25	7.4%	7.4%	85.2%
-1.00	7.4%	14.8%	77.8%
-0.75	14.8%	7.4%	77.8%
-0.50	22.2%	0.0%	77.8%
-0.25	22.2%	13.6%	64.2%
+0.00	22.2%	27.2%	50.6%
+0.25	35.8%	13.6%	50.6%
+0.50	49.4%	0.0%	50.6%
+0.75	49.4%	12.5%	38.2%
+1.00	49.4%	24.9%	25.7%
+1.25	61.8%	12.5%	25.7%
+1.50	74.3%	0.0%	25.7%

Fair line: +0.50 (win 49.4% / push 0.0% / loss 50.6%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 0-1 (13.7%), 1-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (10.3%)

Unbeaten: Genoa 49.4% / Napoli 77.8%

Frosinone vs Juventus (Frosinone vs Juventus)

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 16:30 UTC / 2026-08-24 00:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 15.3% D 20.9% A 63.8% E[T] 2.96 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.75 Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 7.52

Model-estimated EV: +0.154 units per 1 staked

P(win) 15.3%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:53 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 2.75 @ 2.06 · EV +0.051 · P(profit) 56.8% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 43.2%
Draw @ 4.74 · EV -0.012 · P(win) 20.9%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 15.3% (6.52) / D 20.9% (4.80) / A 63.8% (1.57)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 12.2% (Δ+0.031) / D 19.9% (Δ+0.009) / A 67.8% (Δ-0.040)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.96

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

05.4%
114.8%
223.0%
322.4%
416.6%
59.8%
64.8%
7+3.2%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.8 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.8): Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	5.0%	0.0%	95.0%
-1.25	5.0%	5.2%	89.8%
-1.00	5.0%	10.3%	84.7%
-0.75	10.2%	5.2%	84.7%
-0.50	15.3%	0.0%	84.7%
-0.25	15.3%	10.4%	74.2%
+0.00	15.3%	20.9%	63.8%
+0.25	25.8%	10.4%	63.8%
+0.50	36.2%	0.0%	63.8%
+0.75	36.2%	11.9%	51.9%
+1.00	36.2%	23.9%	39.9%
+1.25	48.1%	11.9%	39.9%
+1.50	60.1%	0.0%	39.9%

Fair line: +1.00 (win 36.2% / push 23.9% / loss 39.9%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 0-2 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.9%)

Unbeaten: Frosinone 36.2% / Juventus 84.7%

Venezia vs Lecce (Venezia vs Lecce)

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 16:30 UTC / 2026-08-24 00:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 39.1% D 30.2% A 30.7% E[T] 2.14 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.25 Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

MODEL PICK — Under 2.25 @ 1.91

Model-estimated EV: +0.095 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 63.8% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 36.2%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:53 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Away @ 3.45 · EV +0.058 · P(win) 30.7%
Draw @ 3.27 · EV -0.012 · P(win) 30.2%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 39.1% (2.56) / D 30.2% (3.31) / A 30.7% (3.26)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 42.6% (Δ-0.035) / D 29.5% (Δ+0.007) / A 27.9% (Δ+0.028)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.14

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

012.1%
124.4%
227.3%
319.2%
410.3%
54.4%
61.6%
7+0.6%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.2): Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	16.6%	0.0%	83.4%
-1.25	16.6%	11.3%	72.1%
-1.00	16.6%	22.5%	60.9%
-0.75	27.9%	11.3%	60.9%
-0.50	39.1%	0.0%	60.9%
-0.25	39.1%	15.1%	45.8%
+0.00	39.1%	30.2%	30.7%
+0.25	54.2%	15.1%	30.7%
+0.50	69.3%	0.0%	30.7%
+0.75	69.3%	9.6%	21.1%
+1.00	69.3%	19.2%	11.4%
+1.25	78.9%	9.6%	11.4%
+1.50	88.6%	0.0%	11.4%

Fair line: -0.25 (win 39.1% / push 15.1% / loss 45.8%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.1%)

Unbeaten: Venezia 69.3% / Lecce 60.9%

Torino vs AC Milan (Torino vs Milan)

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 18:45 UTC / 2026-08-24 02:45 HKT

Provenance: live

H 25.0% D 25.3% A 49.7% E[T] 2.72 O/U 2.5 Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 4.68

Model-estimated EV: +0.169 units per 1 staked

P(win) 25.0%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:53 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 2.5 @ 1.93 · EV -0.014 · P(profit) 51.1% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 48.9%
Draw @ 3.87 · EV -0.022 · P(win) 25.3%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 25.0% (4.00) / D 25.3% (3.96) / A 49.7% (2.01)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 20.3% (Δ+0.046) / D 24.8% (Δ+0.005) / A 54.9% (Δ-0.051)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.72

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

06.9%
117.3%
224.7%
322.1%
415.0%
58.2%
63.7%
7+2.1%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.5): Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.5): Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	9.6%	0.0%	90.4%
-1.25	9.6%	7.7%	82.7%
-1.00	9.6%	15.4%	75.0%
-0.75	17.3%	7.7%	75.0%
-0.50	25.0%	0.0%	75.0%
-0.25	25.0%	12.6%	62.4%
+0.00	25.0%	25.3%	49.7%
+0.25	37.6%	12.6%	49.7%
+0.50	50.3%	0.0%	49.7%
+0.75	50.3%	11.6%	38.1%
+1.00	50.3%	23.3%	26.5%
+1.25	61.9%	11.6%	26.5%
+1.50	73.5%	0.0%	26.5%

Fair line: +0.50 (win 50.3% / push 0.0% / loss 49.7%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.5%)

Unbeaten: Torino 50.3% / Milan 75.0%

Atalanta BC vs Sassuolo (Atalanta vs Sassuolo)

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 18:45 UTC / 2026-08-24 02:45 HKT

Provenance: live

H 63.6% D 20.2% A 16.2% E[T] 3.18 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.75 Over 61.6% / Under 38.4%

MODEL PICK — Over 2.75 @ 1.89

Model-estimated EV: +0.064 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 61.6% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 38.4%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:53 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Home @ 1.55 · EV -0.014 · P(win) 63.6%
Away @ 5.93 · EV -0.038 · P(win) 16.2%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 63.6% (1.57) / D 20.2% (4.96) / A 16.2% (6.17)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 63.0% (Δ+0.006) / D 21.2% (Δ-0.011) / A 15.8% (Δ+0.004)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.18

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

04.4%
112.7%
221.3%
322.3%
417.7%
511.3%
66.0%
7+4.3%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.8 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 61.6% / Under 38.4%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.8): Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	40.6%	0.0%	59.4%
-1.25	40.6%	11.5%	47.9%
-1.00	40.6%	23.0%	36.4%
-0.75	52.1%	11.5%	36.4%
-0.50	63.6%	0.0%	36.4%
-0.25	63.6%	10.1%	26.3%
+0.00	63.6%	20.2%	16.2%
+0.25	73.7%	10.1%	16.2%
+0.50	83.8%	0.0%	16.2%
+0.75	83.8%	5.3%	10.9%
+1.00	83.8%	10.5%	5.7%
+1.25	89.1%	5.3%	5.7%
+1.50	94.3%	0.0%	5.7%

Fair line: -1.00 (win 40.6% / push 23.0% / loss 36.4%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.4%)

Unbeaten: Atalanta 83.8% / Sassuolo 36.4%

Bologna vs Lazio (Bologna vs Lazio)

Kickoff: 2026-08-24 16:30 UTC / 2026-08-25 00:30 HKT

Provenance: live

H 39.4% D 28.0% A 32.7% E[T] 2.45 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.25 Over 44.4% / Under 55.6%

MODEL PICK — Away @ 3.54

Model-estimated EV: +0.156 units per 1 staked

P(win) 32.7%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:53 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 2.25 @ 1.95 · EV -0.003 · P(profit) 44.4% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 55.6%
Under 2.25 @ 1.93 · EV -0.049 · P(profit) 55.6% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 44.4%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 39.4% (2.54) / D 28.0% (3.58) / A 32.7% (3.06)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 43.1% (Δ-0.037) / D 29.7% (Δ-0.018) / A 27.2% (Δ+0.055)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.45

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

09.0%
120.4%
226.2%
321.2%
413.0%
56.4%
62.6%
7+1.3%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 44.4% / Under 55.6%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.2): Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	17.9%	0.0%	82.1%
-1.25	17.9%	10.8%	71.4%
-1.00	17.9%	21.5%	60.6%
-0.75	28.6%	10.8%	60.6%
-0.50	39.4%	0.0%	60.6%
-0.25	39.4%	14.0%	46.6%
+0.00	39.4%	28.0%	32.7%
+0.25	53.4%	14.0%	32.7%
+0.50	67.3%	0.0%	32.7%
+0.75	67.3%	9.6%	23.1%
+1.00	67.3%	19.2%	13.5%
+1.25	76.9%	9.6%	13.5%
+1.50	86.5%	0.0%	13.5%

Fair line: +0.00 (win 39.4% / push 28.0% / loss 32.7%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (13.3%), 1-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.6%)

Unbeaten: Bologna 67.3% / Lazio 60.6%

AS Roma vs Fiorentina (Roma vs Fiorentina)

Kickoff: 2026-08-24 18:45 UTC / 2026-08-25 02:45 HKT

Provenance: live

H 53.7% D 24.7% A 21.6% E[T] 2.68 O/U 2.5 Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

MODEL PICK — Away @ 5.92

Model-estimated EV: +0.278 units per 1 staked

P(win) 21.6%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:53 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Draw @ 4.16 · EV +0.028 · P(win) 24.7%
Under 2.5 @ 1.96 · EV -0.022 · P(profit) 49.9% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 50.1%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 53.7% (1.86) / D 24.7% (4.04) / A 21.6% (4.63)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 61.4% (Δ-0.077) / D 22.9% (Δ+0.019) / A 15.8% (Δ+0.058)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.68

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

07.2%
117.8%
225.0%
322.0%
414.7%
57.9%
63.5%
7+2.0%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.5): Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.5): Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	29.6%	0.0%	70.4%
-1.25	29.6%	12.1%	58.4%
-1.00	29.6%	24.1%	46.3%
-0.75	41.6%	12.1%	46.3%
-0.50	53.7%	0.0%	46.3%
-0.25	53.7%	12.4%	33.9%
+0.00	53.7%	24.7%	21.6%
+0.25	66.1%	12.4%	21.6%
+0.50	78.4%	0.0%	21.6%
+0.75	78.4%	6.9%	14.6%
+1.00	78.4%	13.9%	7.7%
+1.25	85.4%	6.9%	7.7%
+1.50	92.3%	0.0%	7.7%

Fair line: -0.75 (win 41.6% / push 12.1% / loss 46.3%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (9.9%)

Unbeaten: Roma 78.4% / Fiorentina 46.3%

Ligue 1

ξ*=0.002, w*=0.8

RPS 0.207251 vs de-vigged Pinnacle close 0.201685 (Δ +0.005565, CI95 [+0.002918,+0.008218]) — model LOSES

9 fixture(s)

RC Lens vs Auxerre (Lens vs Auxerre)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 15:15 UTC / 2026-08-22 23:15 HKT

Provenance: live

H 65.9% D 20.0% A 14.1% E[T] 3.07 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.75 Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 1.58

Model-estimated EV: +0.041 units per 1 staked

P(win) 65.9%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 2.75 @ 1.88 · EV +0.016 · P(profit) 59.3% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 40.7%
Under 2.75 @ 2.01 · EV -0.069 · P(profit) 40.7% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 59.3%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 65.9% (1.52) / D 20.0% (5.00) / A 14.1% (7.10)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 61.7% (Δ+0.042) / D 21.6% (Δ-0.016) / A 16.7% (Δ-0.026)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.07

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

05.0%
113.5%
222.2%
322.4%
417.2%
510.6%
65.4%
7+3.7%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.8 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.8): Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	42.6%	0.0%	57.4%
-1.25	42.6%	11.7%	45.7%
-1.00	42.6%	23.3%	34.1%
-0.75	54.3%	11.7%	34.1%
-0.50	65.9%	0.0%	34.1%
-0.25	65.9%	10.0%	24.1%
+0.00	65.9%	20.0%	14.1%
+0.25	75.9%	10.0%	14.1%
+0.50	85.9%	0.0%	14.1%
+0.75	85.9%	4.7%	9.3%
+1.00	85.9%	9.5%	4.6%
+1.25	90.7%	4.7%	4.6%
+1.50	95.4%	0.0%	4.6%

Fair line: -1.25 (win 42.6% / push 11.7% / loss 45.7%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 2-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.7%)

Unbeaten: Lens 85.9% / Auxerre 34.1%

Le Mans FC vs Brest (Le Mans vs Brest)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 18:45 UTC / 2026-08-23 02:45 HKT

Provenance: live

Promoted/unrated team fallback used: Le Mans (bottom-3 mean rating).

H 32.2% D 27.9% A 40.0% E[T] 2.51 O/U 2.5 Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

MODEL PICK — Away @ 2.77

Model-estimated EV: +0.107 units per 1 staked

P(win) 40.0%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Under 2.5 @ 1.93 · EV +0.043 · P(profit) 54.0% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 46.0%
Draw @ 3.41 · EV -0.050 · P(win) 27.9%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 32.2% (3.11) / D 27.9% (3.59) / A 40.0% (2.50)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 36.7% (Δ-0.046) / D 28.3% (Δ-0.004) / A 35.0% (Δ+0.050)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.51

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

08.6%
119.3%
226.1%
321.4%
413.5%
56.8%
62.8%
7+1.5%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.5): Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.5): Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	13.5%	0.0%	86.5%
-1.25	13.5%	9.4%	77.2%
-1.00	13.5%	18.7%	67.8%
-0.75	22.8%	9.4%	67.8%
-0.50	32.2%	0.0%	67.8%
-0.25	32.2%	13.9%	53.9%
+0.00	32.2%	27.9%	40.0%
+0.25	46.1%	13.9%	40.0%
+0.50	60.0%	0.0%	40.0%
+0.75	60.0%	10.7%	29.3%
+1.00	60.0%	21.4%	18.6%
+1.25	70.7%	10.7%	18.6%
+1.50	81.4%	0.0%	18.6%

Fair line: +0.25 (win 46.1% / push 13.9% / loss 40.0%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-1 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.0%)

Unbeaten: Le Mans 60.0% / Brest 67.8%

Nice vs Lorient (Nice vs Lorient)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 18:45 UTC / 2026-08-23 02:45 HKT

Provenance: live

H 49.1% D 24.6% A 26.4% E[T] 2.95 O/U 2.5 Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

MODEL PICK — Over 2.5 @ 1.89

Model-estimated EV: +0.069 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 56.6% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 43.4%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Home @ 2.17 · EV +0.065 · P(win) 49.1%
Away @ 3.44 · EV -0.093 · P(win) 26.4%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 49.1% (2.04) / D 24.6% (4.07) / A 26.4% (3.79)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 44.9% (Δ+0.042) / D 27.1% (Δ-0.025) / A 28.0% (Δ-0.016)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.95

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

05.7%
114.5%
223.2%
322.4%
416.5%
59.7%
64.8%
7+3.1%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.5): Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.5): Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	26.9%	0.0%	73.1%
-1.25	26.9%	11.1%	62.0%
-1.00	26.9%	22.2%	50.9%
-0.75	38.0%	11.1%	50.9%
-0.50	49.1%	0.0%	50.9%
-0.25	49.1%	12.3%	38.7%
+0.00	49.1%	24.6%	26.4%
+0.25	61.3%	12.3%	26.4%
+0.50	73.6%	0.0%	26.4%
+0.75	73.6%	7.7%	18.7%
+1.00	73.6%	15.4%	10.9%
+1.25	81.3%	7.7%	10.9%
+1.50	89.1%	0.0%	10.9%

Fair line: -0.50 (win 49.1% / push 0.0% / loss 50.9%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%)

Unbeaten: Nice 73.6% / Lorient 50.9%

Toulouse vs Lyon (Toulouse vs Lyon)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 18:45 UTC / 2026-08-23 02:45 HKT

Provenance: live

H 39.8% D 26.3% A 33.9% E[T] 2.79 O/U 2.5 Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

MODEL PICK — Home @ 2.91

Model-estimated EV: +0.159 units per 1 staked

P(win) 39.8%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Over 2.5 @ 1.86 · EV -0.018 · P(profit) 52.8% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 47.2%
Under 2.5 @ 2.03 · EV -0.042 · P(profit) 47.2% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 52.8%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 39.8% (2.51) / D 26.3% (3.81) / A 33.9% (2.95)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 33.2% (Δ+0.066) / D 27.5% (Δ-0.012) / A 39.3% (Δ-0.054)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.79

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

06.6%
116.1%
224.4%
322.2%
415.5%
58.7%
64.0%
7+2.4%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.5): Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.5): Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	19.3%	0.0%	80.7%
-1.25	19.3%	10.2%	70.4%
-1.00	19.3%	20.5%	60.2%
-0.75	29.6%	10.2%	60.2%
-0.50	39.8%	0.0%	60.2%
-0.25	39.8%	13.1%	47.1%
+0.00	39.8%	26.3%	33.9%
+0.25	52.9%	13.1%	33.9%
+0.50	66.1%	0.0%	33.9%
+0.75	66.1%	9.3%	24.6%
+1.00	66.1%	18.6%	15.3%
+1.25	75.4%	9.3%	15.3%
+1.50	84.7%	0.0%	15.3%

Fair line: +0.00 (win 39.8% / push 26.3% / loss 33.9%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-1 (8.7%), 1-0 (8.5%)

Unbeaten: Toulouse 66.1% / Lyon 60.2%

Troyes vs Paris FC (Troyes vs Paris FC)

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 18:45 UTC / 2026-08-23 02:45 HKT

Provenance: live

H 24.0% D 24.3% A 51.7% E[T] 2.90 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 2.75 Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

MODEL PICK — Away @ 2.34

Model-estimated EV: +0.209 units per 1 staked

P(win) 51.7%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Under 2.75 @ 1.95 · EV -0.020 · P(profit) 44.5% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 55.5%
Over 2.75 @ 1.93 · EV -0.034 · P(profit) 55.5% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 44.5%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 24.0% (4.17) / D 24.3% (4.11) / A 51.7% (1.94)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 31.0% (Δ-0.071) / D 27.4% (Δ-0.031) / A 41.5% (Δ+0.101)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.90

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

05.9%
115.0%
223.6%
322.4%
416.2%
59.4%
64.6%
7+2.9%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.8 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.8): Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	9.5%	0.0%	90.5%
-1.25	9.5%	7.3%	83.3%
-1.00	9.5%	14.5%	76.0%
-0.75	16.7%	7.3%	76.0%
-0.50	24.0%	0.0%	76.0%
-0.25	24.0%	12.2%	63.8%
+0.00	24.0%	24.3%	51.7%
+0.25	36.2%	12.2%	51.7%
+0.50	48.3%	0.0%	51.7%
+0.75	48.3%	11.4%	40.3%
+1.00	48.3%	22.8%	28.8%
+1.25	59.7%	11.4%	28.8%
+1.50	71.2%	0.0%	28.8%

Fair line: +0.50 (win 48.3% / push 0.0% / loss 51.7%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.2%)

Unbeaten: Troyes 48.3% / Paris FC 76.0%

Angers vs Lille (Angers vs Lille)

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 13:00 UTC / 2026-08-23 21:00 HKT

Provenance: live

H 19.2% D 25.9% A 54.9% E[T] 2.45 O/U 2.5 Over 44.4% / Under 55.6%

MODEL PICK — Under 2.5 @ 1.88

Model-estimated EV: +0.045 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 55.6% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 44.4%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Draw @ 3.85 · EV -0.003 · P(win) 25.9%
Home @ 5.01 · EV -0.036 · P(win) 19.2%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 19.2% (5.20) / D 25.9% (3.86) / A 54.9% (1.82)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 18.9% (Δ+0.004) / D 24.8% (Δ+0.011) / A 56.3% (Δ-0.015)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 2.45

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

09.1%
120.1%
226.4%
321.2%
413.0%
56.4%
62.6%
7+1.3%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 2.5): Over 44.4% / Under 55.6%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 2.5): Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	6.2%	0.0%	93.8%
-1.25	6.2%	6.5%	87.3%
-1.00	6.2%	13.0%	80.8%
-0.75	12.7%	6.5%	80.8%
-0.50	19.2%	0.0%	80.8%
-0.25	19.2%	13.0%	67.8%
+0.00	19.2%	25.9%	54.9%
+0.25	32.2%	13.0%	54.9%
+0.50	45.1%	0.0%	54.9%
+0.75	45.1%	12.6%	42.3%
+1.00	45.1%	25.1%	29.7%
+1.25	57.7%	12.6%	29.7%
+1.50	70.3%	0.0%	29.7%

Fair line: +0.75 (win 45.1% / push 12.6% / loss 42.3%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 0-1 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.2%), 0-2 (11.1%)

Unbeaten: Angers 45.1% / Lille 80.8%

Le Havre vs AS Monaco (Le Havre vs Monaco)

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 15:15 UTC / 2026-08-23 23:15 HKT

Provenance: live

H 24.1% D 23.2% A 52.8% E[T] 3.13 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 3 Over 60.5% / Under 39.5%

MODEL PICK — PASS

No offered candidate has positive model-estimated EV.

Pinnacle timestamps: h2h 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC / totals 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

Three closest candidates

Away @ 1.88 · EV -0.008 · P(win) 52.8%
Over 3 @ 1.98 · EV -0.021 · P(profit) 38.2% / P(push) 22.3% / P(loss) 39.5%
Under 3 @ 1.91 · EV -0.022 · P(profit) 39.5% / P(push) 22.3% / P(loss) 38.2%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 24.1% (4.16) / D 23.2% (4.31) / A 52.8% (1.90)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 24.5% (Δ-0.005) / D 23.6% (Δ-0.004) / A 51.9% (Δ+0.009)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.13

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

04.8%
112.8%
221.8%
322.3%
417.5%
510.9%
65.7%
7+4.0%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 3.0 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 60.5% / Under 39.5%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 3.0): Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	9.9%	0.0%	90.1%
-1.25	9.9%	7.1%	83.0%
-1.00	9.9%	14.2%	75.9%
-0.75	17.0%	7.1%	75.9%
-0.50	24.1%	0.0%	75.9%
-0.25	24.1%	11.6%	64.4%
+0.00	24.1%	23.2%	52.8%
+0.25	35.6%	11.6%	52.8%
+0.50	47.2%	0.0%	52.8%
+0.75	47.2%	11.1%	41.7%
+1.00	47.2%	22.2%	30.5%
+1.25	58.3%	11.1%	30.5%
+1.50	69.5%	0.0%	30.5%

Fair line: +0.50 (win 47.2% / push 0.0% / loss 52.8%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 1-1 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%)

Unbeaten: Le Havre 47.2% / Monaco 75.9%

Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes (Paris SG vs Rennes)

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 18:45 UTC / 2026-08-24 02:45 HKT

Provenance: live

H 71.9% D 16.0% A 12.1% E[T] 3.79 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 3.25 Over 72.9% / Under 27.1%

MODEL PICK — Over 3.25 @ 1.89

Model-estimated EV: +0.093 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 52.4% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 47.6%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Home @ 1.52 · EV +0.092 · P(win) 71.9%
Under 3.25 @ 1.94 · EV -0.173 · P(profit) 47.6% / P(push) 0.0% / P(loss) 52.4%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 71.9% (1.39) / D 16.0% (6.24) / A 12.1% (8.26)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 63.5% (Δ+0.083) / D 20.0% (Δ-0.039) / A 16.5% (Δ-0.044)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.79

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

02.5%
18.0%
216.5%
320.5%
419.4%
514.7%
69.3%
7+9.0%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 3.2 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 72.9% / Under 27.1%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 3.2): Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	51.5%	0.0%	48.5%
-1.25	51.5%	10.2%	38.3%
-1.00	51.5%	20.4%	28.1%
-0.75	61.7%	10.2%	28.1%
-0.50	71.9%	0.0%	28.1%
-0.25	71.9%	8.0%	20.1%
+0.00	71.9%	16.0%	12.1%
+0.25	79.9%	8.0%	12.1%
+0.50	87.9%	0.0%	12.1%
+0.75	87.9%	3.9%	8.2%
+1.00	87.9%	7.8%	4.3%
+1.25	91.8%	3.9%	4.3%
+1.50	95.7%	0.0%	4.3%

Fair line: -1.50 (win 51.5% / push 0.0% / loss 48.5%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (8.1%)

Unbeaten: Paris SG 87.9% / Rennes 28.1%

Marseille vs Strasbourg (Marseille vs Strasbourg)

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 18:45 UTC / 2026-08-22 02:45 HKT

Provenance: frozen pre-kickoff

H 55.4% D 21.5% A 23.1% E[T] 3.44 O/U 2.5 reference — decision uses recorded 3 Over 66.9% / Under 33.1%

MODEL PICK — Over 3 @ 1.87

Model-estimated EV: +0.061 units per 1 staked

P(profit) 45.1% / P(push) 21.7% / P(loss) 33.1%

Pinnacle timestamp: 2026-08-20 13:15:52 UTC

EV-ranked alternatives

Away @ 4.47 · EV +0.033 · P(win) 23.1%
Home @ 1.75 · EV -0.031 · P(win) 55.4%

Research signal from one Pinnacle snapshot—not proven value or betting advice. This model has historically lost to the sharp close; prices may have moved.

Full model analysis — 1X2, totals, Asian handicap, lineup & scorelines

1. Result (1X2)

Model: H 55.4% (1.81) / D 21.5% (4.64) / A 23.1% (4.33)

De-vigged Pinnacle: H 55.8% (Δ-0.004) / D 22.9% (Δ-0.014) / A 21.3% (Δ+0.018)

2. Over/under

E[T] = 3.44

Total goals distribution (7+ = truncated tail)

03.6%
110.3%
219.3%
321.7%
418.7%
512.9%
67.4%
7+6.1%

Model O/U at 2.5 (book line 3.0 is not a half-line; model shown at 2.5): Over 66.9% / Under 33.1%

De-vigged Pinnacle totals (at 3.0): Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

3. Asian handicap

model-only (no AH market in capture)

Line	Win	Push	Loss
-1.50	33.8%	0.0%	66.2%
-1.25	33.8%	10.8%	55.4%
-1.00	33.8%	21.6%	44.6%
-0.75	44.6%	10.8%	44.6%
-0.50	55.4%	0.0%	44.6%
-0.25	55.4%	10.8%	33.9%
+0.00	55.4%	21.5%	23.1%
+0.25	66.1%	10.8%	23.1%
+0.50	76.9%	0.0%	23.1%
+0.75	76.9%	6.7%	16.5%
+1.00	76.9%	13.3%	9.8%
+1.25	83.5%	6.7%	9.8%
+1.50	90.2%	0.0%	9.8%

Fair line: -0.75 (win 44.6% / push 10.8% / loss 44.6%)

4. Lineup

lineup/availability effect measured at ZERO (Phase 3b discount*=0); this card does not change when lineups drop.

Top scorelines: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.2%)

Unbeaten: Marseille 76.9% / Strasbourg 44.6%